According to Cointelegraph, XRP is currently experiencing its most sustained spot premium phase, marking a period where the spot market is trading at stronger levels compared to perpetual futures. This suggests real buying demand rather than speculative futures trading. Historically, the major price spikes of XRP since 2020 have been driven by the perpetual futures market, leading to sharp price drops due to excessive speculation. However, the current spot premium indicates that real buyers are driving the rally, pointing to a more stable price increase.
Further supporting the notion of real demand, Glassnode data reveals a steady increase in the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 tokens since the end of November 2024. Despite a 35% pullback in price between January and April, the count of large holders, often seen as patient or strategic investors, has continued to rise. This accumulation suggests anticipation of further gains, driven by optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF in the United States. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's decision to withdraw its lawsuit against Ripple has also contributed to positive market sentiment.
The price movement of XRP is currently consolidating within a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart, characterized by converging and downward-sloping trend lines. In technical analysis, this pattern is typically seen as a bullish reversal signal. A confirmed breakout would require a clear move above the upper resistance of the wedge near $2.52. If XRP successfully breaks this level, the measured move of the pattern suggests a potential rally towards $3.78 by June, representing an estimated 70% increase from current prices.
Conversely, if XRP fails to break above the $2.52 resistance, the price could pull back towards the lower trend line of the wedge, with the vertex of the pattern near $1.81 acting as the last potential breakout point. A breakout from the $1.81 level would maintain the structure of the pattern, with a potential upside target around $3 by June or July, approximately 35% above current levels. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, as every trading move carries risks.