XRP kicked off the new month with a chart shift that renowned trader CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) describes as "one of the most important structural levels" for this token in this cycle. In a post on X on May 1, the analyst argues that the $2.25 area — a previous breakout pivot — has become the battleground where the next decisive move will be formed.

XRP Price Faces Important Back-Test

"May begins with an important retracement test — the next move of XRP could come much sooner than many realize!" CasiTrades wrote, framing the current pullback as a textbook retest of a broken support level that has turned into resistance.

According to a technical expert, failing to maintain a bid above $2.25 last week triggered the formation of a three-wave corrective pattern. Sub-wave B appears to have ended with a brief return to $2.25 on Wednesday, leaving what CasiTrades calls "a potential wave C move towards $2.00" as the scenario to watch.

The analyst allows for deeper daily liquidity scanning, noting that "if the final leg plays out according to momentum, there is a good chance we'll drop to $1.90," a price level not seen since XRP broke out earlier this quarter. The $1.90 area coincides with both the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally after the corrective low and the 0.618 retracement of the most recent leg — two retracement depths that many technicians consider high-probability reaction zones.

Short-term momentum indicators are suggesting that the correction phase may be running out of steam. "On lower time frames, the RSI is flashing exhaustion, indicating that this decline may only be temporary," the post continues. Therefore, CasiTrades considers the potential rally as the "last touch of support before XRP flips the $2.25 level and starts the race," reiterating price targets at $2.68, $3.00, and "beyond once we break out clearly."

Currently, the bigger picture "remains unchanged," the analyst concludes. "All signs point to a final bullish move before the structure is ready to push higher... Excited to see how May begins! Watch closely — not with hype, but pure technicals!"

Market participants will be watching the $2.00–$1.90 range for evidence that buyers are indeed defending the midpoint of the recent rally. On the other hand, convincingly reclaiming the $2.25 level would confirm CasiTrades' argument that only a "significant retracement test" stands between XRP and the next leg towards multi-year highs.

At the time of the press release, XRP was trading at $2.21 and is gradually rising from the important support area of $2.00 (red).