Fundamental analysis ahead of data release (NFP, Unemployment, Wages):
🔹Facts:
NFP (Expected 138K < Previous 228K) – slower employment growth is expected, which may negatively affect the dollar.
Unemployment rate (expected 4.2%) – no change, neutral.
Average hourly earnings (0.3%) – inflationary pressure is stable, giving no reason for aggressive decisions by the Fed.
Forecast:
🟣 #GOLD: likely to rise in the event of weak NFP (<138K) — against the backdrop of expectations of Fed policy easing. However, based on the overall US policy, there are strong indications of a further decline.
🟣 #FOREX: the dollar may weaken, especially against the EUR and JPY, if the data confirms a slowdown in the labor market.
🟣 #CRYPTO: Moderate growth is likely — a weak dollar and expectations of rate cuts may boost interest in risky assets.
Expectations: Weaker than consensus — bullish for gold and crypto, bearish for the dollar.