Bitcoin (BTC) analysis for today, May 2, 2025. The analysis of Bitcoin for today is based on information available up to the date, combining fundamental, technical, and market sentiment factors. Below is a concise summary: 1. Current Price and Context
Current price: According to recent data, the price of Bitcoin is around $96,636 - $97,162 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $31,000M - $32,000M USD.
Recent performance: Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,464.94 on January 20, 2025, but has experienced a correction and stabilization in the current range. In the last 24 hours, the price has shown a slight variation of -0.37% to +0.27%.
Market capitalization: Approximately $1.85T - $1.98T USD, with a circulating supply of 19.8M BTC.
2. Fundamental Analysis
Macroeconomic factors:
Today, the core PCE index data is released in the U.S., a key measure of inflation. An increase of 0.1% month-on-month or 2.6% year-on-year is expected, near the 2% target. A lower-than-expected figure could increase the chances of interest rate cuts, which historically has been positive for Bitcoin.
U.S. economic policies, including potential trade tariffs, have generated uncertainty. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin could benefit as a safe-haven asset if inflation or recession intensifies.
Institutional adoption:
Institutions like Metaplanet (which plans to raise $250M to accumulate BTC) and the possible integration of cryptocurrency trading on platforms like E*Trade by Morgan Stanley in 2026 reflect a growing institutional interest.
However, the outflows of $772M in spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate some caution among investors due to inflationary concerns.
Bitcoin as a yield asset: Institutions are exploring DeFi strategies (staking, lending) to generate yields with Bitcoin, which could solidify its position as an asset beyond a mere store of value.
Scarcity and halving: The recent halving of 2024 continues to reduce the supply of new BTC (currently 6.25 BTC per block), which, combined with sustained demand, could drive the price up in the long term.
3. Technical Analysis
Key levels:
Resistance: Bitcoin faces resistance at $95,000 - $100,000. Surpassing $95,000 could confirm bullish momentum towards $106,000 or even $109,000 (recent high).
Support: Support levels are found at $90,000 - $88,000 and, further down, at $74,000, where a double bottom was formed in the past. A drop below $90,000 could bring the price down to the $88,000 zone for a healthy correction.
Technical indicators:
Moving averages: In the 4-hour timeframe, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages show a bearish trend, suggesting caution in the short term. However, in the daily timeframe, the 200-day moving average remains bullish, indicating an overall positive trend.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the neutral zone (30-70), indicating that the price is neither overbought nor oversold, allowing movements in both directions.
Technical sentiment: According to Changelly, market sentiment is 71% bullish, with a Fear and Greed Index at 56 (Greed), suggesting moderate optimism.
Recent patterns: Bitcoin recently broke a temporary downward trend line, which some analysts interpret as the beginning of a new uptrend. However, the lack of volume in spot buying could limit immediate bullish momentum.
4. Market Sentiment
Posts on X:
Some users report optimism, highlighting that Bitcoin is breaking downward trends and could aim for $95,000 or more if it maintains current support.
Others warn of a possible correction towards $88,000 if spot buying volume does not increase, especially in a context of futures selling.
There is also a perception of Bitcoin as a less correlated asset with the stock market, reinforcing its narrative as a store of value against the decline of the dollar or the S&P 500.
Analysts:
Bitwise projects a base price of $200,000 by the end of 2025 without greater government adoption.
Javier Pastor (Bit2Me) is even more optimistic, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 and surpass $1M by 2030, driven by scarcity and the withdrawal of liquidity from exchanges.
On the other hand, some analysts warn of a possible drop to $25,000 - $30,000 in a "crypto winter" scenario if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
5. Scenarios for Today
Bullish: If Bitcoin surpasses $95,000 with an increase in spot buying volume, it could head towards $100,000, especially if PCE data is favorable and reinforces expectations of rate cuts. The breakout from the recent downward trend supports this scenario.
Bearish: If it fails to maintain above $95,000 and futures selling volume increases, it could correct towards $90,000 - $88,000, forming a higher low before regaining momentum.
Neutral: Bitcoin is likely to continue within a range between $93,000 and $95,000 during the day, awaiting clear catalysts such as macroeconomic data or regulatory news.
6. Recommendations
Short-term investors: Monitor the mentioned support and resistance levels, along with trading volume. Technical signals suggest caution, with a bullish bias if $95,000 is surpassed. 15-minute to 2-hour setups are ideal for intraday trading.
Long-term investors: The bullish trend of Bitcoin remains intact, supported by scarcity, institutional adoption, and its role as a safe-haven asset. However, volatility requires strict risk management, investing only what one is willing to lose.
Risks: The high volatility of Bitcoin and macroeconomic uncertainty (inflation, tariffs, regulations) can lead to sharp movements. A "crypto winter" is not dismissible in the worst-case scenario.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase following its all-time high in January 2025, with a current price close to $96,636 - $97,162 USD. Today's macroeconomic data, especially the PCE index, could influence its short-term direction. Technically, the breakout from the recent downward trend is positive, but the lack of volume in spot buying suggests that bullish momentum could be limited without clear catalysts. Key levels to watch are $95,000 (resistance) and $90,000 - $88,000 (support). In the long term, the outlook remains bullish due to scarcity, institutional adoption, and solid fundamentals, although volatility requires caution.
Note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Do your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions, considering Bitcoin's high volatility.