May 2nd Market View

1. $BTC Big Cake, expected range 97300-95000, expected trend fluctuating downwards;

2. $ETH Second Cake, expected range 1850-1790, expected trend fluctuating downwards;

3. Tonight at 20:30 Non-Farm Payroll data/unemployment rate (expected to trigger a spike and decline)

【Market Analysis】

Last night, Big Cake and Second Cake continued to rise, mainly due to:

① The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Besant, stated in an interview that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, intensifying speculation about rate cuts; ② Several technology stocks announced earnings growth (positive news), and at the "Investing in America" conference, multiple tech companies expressed intentions to invest, leading to a surge in the stock market and optimistic sentiment; ③ Japan maintained its interest rates, eliminating the risk of a rate hike in Japan.

Tonight, there will be Non-Farm and employment data, which should cause a spike when the data is released (stimulating expectations of rate cuts).

However, in the late night and over the weekend, it is expected to turn into a downward trend (market expectations that the Fed will not cut rates next week, leading to a dissipating sentiment and subsequent decline).

Due to the lack of positive news to continue driving up prices, we expect a fluctuating downward trend today.

【Mid-Term View】

① With Trump expressing a softened stance on the tariff war with China and other countries, and indicating no intention to dismiss Powell, the market atmosphere has improved significantly, and one should not be overly bearish.

② Starting this week, the market will focus on employment and inflation data, gradually beginning to speculate on rate cuts, with market volatility sharply rising and falling based on the quality of the data.

③ In the long term, the bull market is nearing its end; for counterfeit varieties and spot goods, it is advisable to sell within the next month or two when the rebound approaches a 30%-50% recovery from the declines since December.

【Strategy】

Short Selling.