The price of Bitcoin increased by over 12% last week, reaching $96,500, surpassing the average purchase price of 'short-term whales' — large holders who acquired Bitcoin over the last six months.
CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn told BeInCrypto that these whales have restored their breakeven level at $90,890. This means they are now in profit and less likely to sell, adding stability to the market.
Short-term holders of large volumes of Bitcoin are returning to profitability
Short-term whales are addresses that have held Bitcoin for less than six months. These whales are now in aggregate profit as Bitcoin exceeds their average realized price.
Historically, when these participants move into profitability, they tend to pause or reduce selling pressure.
The Short/Long-Term Whale Realized Price chart from CryptoQuant shows that the orange line (short-term whales' cost basis) has been rising towards the white curve of the market price in recent weeks. This confirms that most short-term holders would be in profit if they sold at current levels.
On-chain data emphasizes significance. Funding rates on perpetual swaps remain deeply negative, indicating significant short positions ready for potential squeeze if buying continues.
Meanwhile, long-term holders are steadily restoring their accumulation. Moreover, the network hash rate reached a record of 1.04 ZH/s this month.
These metrics suggest that miners and patient investors are confident in supporting the growth trajectory.
Seasonal and macroeconomic dynamics strengthen the outlook
Seasonal trends often cool summer rallies. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a 26% increase in the second quarter, but the median has only been 7.6% since 2013. There have been sharp declines — such as 56.2% in the second quarter of 2022.
The third quarter is typically weaker, with an average growth of 6%, and the median slightly negative. As May approaches, many are preparing for the 'sell in May' effect seen in stock markets, where the S&P 500 has returned only 1.8% from May to October since 1950. Macroeconomic factors also matter. Inflation in the U.S. has decreased to 2.4%, and markets now anticipate a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in 2025.
A weaker dollar boosts risk assets such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $3 billion in net inflows at the end of April, indicating strong institutional demand.
Overall, whale profits, healthy on-chain signals, and supportive macroeconomic trends underpin Bitcoin's rally.
However, seasonal headwinds and derivative imbalances remain. Traders should set clear risk boundaries and monitor funding rates and economic news this summer.#Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #Squar2earn #crypto #trading $BTC
