Bitcoin (BTC) has captivated markets with its dramatic price swings, showcasing both resilience and volatility. Here’s a breakdown of the latest developments and what experts say could come next:
### **1. Price Action & Key Levels**
- **Surge to $91K**: Bitcoin recently rallied over 20%, reclaiming $91,687 amid decoupling from tech stocks and aligning closer with gold as a "store of value" .
- **Critical Resistance**: The $85,750–$94,000 range is pivotal. A sustained close above $91K could reignite bullish momentum toward new all-time highs, while failure risks a dip to $71K–$74K .
- **Support Levels**:
- Short-term: $81,000 (CME gap filled during the rebound) .
- Mid-term: $70,000–$73,777 (Arthur Hayes’ predicted bottom and March 2024 support) .
**2. Catalysts Driving the Rebound**
- **Macro Shifts**: Trump’s trade tariffs and criticism of the Fed sparked initial panic but later fueled bets on Bitcoin as a hedge against dollar weakness .
- **Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)**: Trump’s pending evaluation of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve plan (due mid-May) is boosting institutional interest .
- **Liquidity Influx**: Rising M2 money supply and potential Fed rate cuts could inject capital into risk assets, including BTC .
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### **3. Expert Predictions: Bull vs. Bear**
- **Ultra-Bullish**:
- **Peter Brandt** highlights an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, projecting a *conservative* target of $134K and a *bullish* $327K .
- **Daan Crypto Trades** sees a breakout to new highs if BTC holds $90K .
- **Cautious Optimism**:
- **Arthur Hayes** predicts a $70K floor, contingent on a macroeconomic shock (e.g., S&P 500 crash) before a rebound .
- Analysts warn of corrections akin to March 2024, where single-day rallies were followed by pullbacks .
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### **4. Market Sentiment & Indicators**
- **ETF Inflows**: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $381 million inflows on April 29, the largest since January, signaling renewed institutional confidence .
- **Derivatives Activity**: Futures trading volume rebounded to $57B, though open interest remains below peaks. Binance dominates with $18B in volume .
- **Fear & Greed**: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index hit "Extreme Fear" (15) amid miner sell-offs, but recent price stabilization suggests sentiment recovery .
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### **5. Risks to Watch**
- **Volatility**: Thin order books and leveraged positions could trigger "easy up, easy down" price swings .
- **Stablecoin Dominance**: Structurally bullish stablecoin metrics hint at lingering bearish pressure for altcoins, potentially affecting BTC’s momentum .
- **Technical Hurdles**: Bitcoin must close above the weekly TBO Fast line (~$87K) to confirm a sustained bullish reversal .
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**Conclusion**: Bitcoin’s rebound is fueled by macro uncertainty, technical resilience, and policy speculation. While $327K dreams tantalize bulls, traders must navigate volatility and key levels. **Watch $90K for breakout signals** and macro developments like Fed policy shifts or SBR updates.
*Stay tuned—BTC’s next move could redefine the 2025 market cycle!* 🌕
**Sources**: [Kitco](https://www.kitco.com) | [Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com) | [Bitcoinist](https://bitcoinist.com) | [The Crypto Basic](https://thecryptobasic.com) | [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com).
