summary of the probability of ETF launch for major altcoins in 2025 according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysis and the ETP (Exchange Traded Product) filing process:\n\n### Probability of Altcoin ETF Launch in 2025
Litecoin ($LTC): 90%
Solana ($SOL): 90%
Ripple ($XRP): 85%
Hedera ($HBAR): 80%
Dogecoin ($DOGE): 80%
Cardano ($ADA): 75%
Polkadot ($DOT): 75%
Avalanche ($AVAX): 75%
Some notable information on the table:
Submission date (First 19b-4 File Date) for projects all fall in Q1/2025.
SEC assessment: Most of these tokens are considered commodities by the SEC, likely to be approved more than tokens classified as securities.
CFTC Futures: Has futures contracts managed by the CFTC, favorable for ETP filings.
Probability of approval: Odds of Approval Index is a composite result evaluating the likelihood of spot ETF approval for altcoins by BI.
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Note:
This is an opinion based on current analysis, the probability may change depending on SEC policies, market conditions, and upcoming legal developments.
The highest probability is Litecoin, Solana (90%), the lowest on the list is Cardano, Polkadot.
t, Avalanche (75%).
Below is a detailed analysis of why the altcoins on the list have such a high probability of launching an ETF in 2025:
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1️⃣ Litecoin ($LTC) — 90%
Reason:
Similar to Bitcoin: Litecoin is considered Bitcoin's 'brother' technically (both use PoW mechanism, limited supply, transparency, long-standing).
Not considered securities by the SEC: Classified as commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with clear legal scope.
Has futures: Litecoin has futures contracts on the CME — this is a significant advantage as the SEC previously required assets wishing to have spot ETFs to have futures regulated by the CFTC.
Good liquidity and market capitalization.
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2️⃣ Solana ($SOL) — 90%
Reason:
Strongly developing ecosystem: Solana has a strong reputation with fast transaction speeds, low fees, attracting many applications, major DeFi/NFT projects.
High liquidity, market capitalization in the top 5.
Transparency: Although previously classified by the SEC as 'securities,' pressure from the market and institutional investors makes the likelihood of reconsideration very high, paving the way for ETFs.
Attention from large funds: Grayscale, VanEck have established ETP/funds for SOL, increasing the likelihood of filing.
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3️⃣ Ripple ($XRP) — 85%
Reason:
Has won most lawsuits against the SEC: Court ruled XRP is not a security in secondary market transactions (exchange), paving the way for ETFs.
Largest market capitalization among 'non-Bitcoin/Ethereum' assets.
Technological innovation: Used for cross-border payments, receiving interest from traditional financial institutions.
Abundant liquidity, stable trading volume.
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4️⃣ Hedera ($HBAR) — 80%
Reason:
Projects backed by major corporations: Google, IBM, Boeing, LG, etc.
Advanced technology: DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) excels in speed and scalability.
Not yet disputed by the SEC as securities.
Has practical products and major partners that enhance reliability and transparency, attracting institutional investors.
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5️⃣ Dogecoin ($DOGE) — 80%
Reason:
Strong community: Has media outreach (both meme and practical, supported by Elon Musk).
High liquidity, market capitalization in the top market.
Not considered securities by the SEC, easier to apply for ETFs compared to many other altcoins.
Retail investor interest is very high, ensuring liquidity for the ETF.
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6️⃣ Cardano ($ADA) — 75%
Reason:
Developing ecosystem, many DeFi, NFT, staking projects.
Notable leader: Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Ethereum).
Large market capitalization, in the blue-chip group.
However, there was a time when the SEC classified it as securities in dense filings about altcoins, leading to slightly higher legal risks than the above group.
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7️⃣ Polkadot ($DOT) — 75%\nReason:
Transparent governance mechanism: Parachain, cross-chain connectivity, leading in technology.
Not considered securities by the SEC (recently announced by Web3 Foundation achieving 'software' status not classified as securities).
Wide partnerships with major projects, strong market capitalization. \n- However, there are no popular spot futures contracts like Litecoin, SOL.
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8️⃣ Avalanche ($AVAX) — 75%
Reason:
Invested by many large funds, on major exchanges, with a diverse ecosystem.
Not on the list of assets heavily targeted by the SEC, not directly classified as securities.
Stable market capitalization, ranked in the top 20.
However, in terms of liquidity and popularity, it is not as strong as the above coins, hence the probability is slightly lower.
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Conclusion
Key factors determining the likelihood of ETF approval:
Not considered securities by the SEC or has clear legal rulings.
Has futures market on CME or similar ETP products internationally.
Has large trading volume and market capitalization, high liquidity.
Attracted interest from institutional investors/funds, or has previously filed for ETP/ETF.
The above group (Litecoin, Solana) benefits from clear 'commodity' status and has futures, the group
below (ADA, DOT, AVAX) affected by legal risks or liquidity.$SOL
