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The Calm After the Storm For Bitcoin: Long-Term Holders Step Back
Long-term Bitcoin holders have slowed their activity, with Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) returning to normal levels after a year of heightened movement.
The market is experiencing a period of sideways trading, with Bitcoin consolidating just below the $96,000 resistance.
Whale activity shows a dramatic drop in net outflows, hinting at a shift from selling to holding or accumulating.
The MVRV ratio has rebounded, indicating most holders are in profit, but not yet at levels that typically signal a market top.
On-chain valuation metrics suggest Bitcoin is neither overvalued nor undervalued, with room for further upside.
Social sentiment and retail engagement are rising, potentially setting the stage for increased volatility.
Technical indicators point to a squeeze, with a breakout or breakdown likely as Bitcoin approaches key resistance.
The Calm After the Storm: Long-Term Holders Step Back
After nearly a year of intense redistribution, Bitcoin’s long-term holders are taking a breather. The 60-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a metric that tracks the movement of older coins—has reverted to its baseline, signaling a pause in the transfer of coins from seasoned investors. This cooling-off period often marks the end of a distribution phase, historically paving the way for a new cycle of accumulation.
This shift comes as the broader crypto market enters a phase of price compression, with Bitcoin trading in a tight range just below the psychologically significant $96,000 mark. Such periods of low volatility and reduced long-term holder activity have, in the past, set the stage for the next major move—raising the question: are the bulls quietly preparing for another surge?
Whale Behavior: From Distribution to Accumulation
A closer look at on-chain data reveals a dramatic change in the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales. Over the past week, the 7-day netflow of Bitcoin has plummeted by an astonishing –619.31%. The 30-day and 90-day netflows have also seen sharp declines, at –110.24% and –61.82% respectively.
This steep drop in outflows suggests that whales are no longer rushing to offload their holdings. Instead, they appear to be shifting gears—either holding onto their coins or quietly accumulating more. The timing of this behavioral change aligns with the cooldown in long-term holder activity, reinforcing the narrative of reduced selling pressure and a more stable supply. Such conditions often precede the early stages of a new accumulation phase, where smart money positions itself ahead of the crowd.
Profitability and Valuation: A Balanced Outlook
Bitcoin’s profitability landscape has also shifted. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has rebounded to 126.73%, a significant recovery from the lows near 83% seen in early April. This means that, on average, most Bitcoin holders are back in profit. While this can sometimes lead to increased selling as investors look to lock in gains, the current MVRV level remains well below the euphoric peaks that have historically signaled market tops.
On-chain valuation models present a nuanced picture. The NVT Golden Cross—a metric that compares market cap to transaction volume—has dropped by –75.03%, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to its on-chain activity. Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue, sits at 1.08 (down –11.87%), indicating that issuance is slightly elevated but not at levels that would typically trigger concern. Together, these indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s valuation is in a state of equilibrium, with neither excessive froth nor deep undervaluation.
Social Sentiment: Retail Traders Reawaken
Beyond the numbers, the mood in the Bitcoin community is shifting. Social metrics show a notable uptick in engagement, with Social Dominance reaching 25.04% and Social Volume climbing to 3,274. This renewed buzz follows Bitcoin’s resilience near key resistance levels, hinting at a resurgence of retail interest.
While the current level of excitement is far from the mania seen during previous bull runs, rising community chatter often precedes periods of heightened volatility. If this trend continues, it could serve as a secondary catalyst, amplifying any price moves triggered by technical or on-chain developments.
Technical Analysis: Squeeze Before the Storm
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is coiling for a significant move. The price remains locked just below $96,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.60—approaching overbought territory. Bollinger Bands are tightening, a classic sign that volatility is about to return. Key support levels are found at $92,700 and $89,500, while the next major resistance sits at $99,000.
This tightening price structure suggests that a breakout or breakdown is imminent. A decisive close above $96,000 could open the door to a rally toward the $100,000 milestone, while a rejection at this level might prolong the current consolidation phase.
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. The retreat of long-term holders and the sharp decline in whale outflows point to a market in transition, with selling pressure easing and the groundwork being laid for renewed accumulation. Profitability has improved, but not to the point of overheating, and on-chain valuations remain balanced. Meanwhile, rising social engagement hints at growing retail interest, setting the stage for increased volatility. As Bitcoin consolidates just below a critical resistance, all eyes are on whether the bulls can reclaim $96,000 and ignite the next leg higher. The coming days could prove decisive, with the potential for a breakout that reshapes the market narrative.
The market is experiencing a period of sideways trading, with Bitcoin consolidating just below the $96,000 resistance.
Whale activity shows a dramatic drop in net outflows, hinting at a shift from selling to holding or accumulating.
The MVRV ratio has rebounded, indicating most holders are in profit, but not yet at levels that typically signal a market top.
On-chain valuation metrics suggest Bitcoin is neither overvalued nor undervalued, with room for further upside.
Social sentiment and retail engagement are rising, potentially setting the stage for increased volatility.
Technical indicators point to a squeeze, with a breakout or breakdown likely as Bitcoin approaches key resistance.
The Calm After the Storm: Long-Term Holders Step Back
After nearly a year of intense redistribution, Bitcoin’s long-term holders are taking a breather. The 60-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a metric that tracks the movement of older coins—has reverted to its baseline, signaling a pause in the transfer of coins from seasoned investors. This cooling-off period often marks the end of a distribution phase, historically paving the way for a new cycle of accumulation.
This shift comes as the broader crypto market enters a phase of price compression, with Bitcoin trading in a tight range just below the psychologically significant $96,000 mark. Such periods of low volatility and reduced long-term holder activity have, in the past, set the stage for the next major move—raising the question: are the bulls quietly preparing for another surge?
Whale Behavior: From Distribution to Accumulation
A closer look at on-chain data reveals a dramatic change in the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales. Over the past week, the 7-day netflow of Bitcoin has plummeted by an astonishing –619.31%. The 30-day and 90-day netflows have also seen sharp declines, at –110.24% and –61.82% respectively.
This steep drop in outflows suggests that whales are no longer rushing to offload their holdings. Instead, they appear to be shifting gears—either holding onto their coins or quietly accumulating more. The timing of this behavioral change aligns with the cooldown in long-term holder activity, reinforcing the narrative of reduced selling pressure and a more stable supply. Such conditions often precede the early stages of a new accumulation phase, where smart money positions itself ahead of the crowd.
Profitability and Valuation: A Balanced Outlook
Bitcoin’s profitability landscape has also shifted. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has rebounded to 126.73%, a significant recovery from the lows near 83% seen in early April. This means that, on average, most Bitcoin holders are back in profit. While this can sometimes lead to increased selling as investors look to lock in gains, the current MVRV level remains well below the euphoric peaks that have historically signaled market tops.
On-chain valuation models present a nuanced picture. The NVT Golden Cross—a metric that compares market cap to transaction volume—has dropped by –75.03%, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to its on-chain activity. Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue, sits at 1.08 (down –11.87%), indicating that issuance is slightly elevated but not at levels that would typically trigger concern. Together, these indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s valuation is in a state of equilibrium, with neither excessive froth nor deep undervaluation.
Social Sentiment: Retail Traders Reawaken
Beyond the numbers, the mood in the Bitcoin community is shifting. Social metrics show a notable uptick in engagement, with Social Dominance reaching 25.04% and Social Volume climbing to 3,274. This renewed buzz follows Bitcoin’s resilience near key resistance levels, hinting at a resurgence of retail interest.
While the current level of excitement is far from the mania seen during previous bull runs, rising community chatter often precedes periods of heightened volatility. If this trend continues, it could serve as a secondary catalyst, amplifying any price moves triggered by technical or on-chain developments.
Technical Analysis: Squeeze Before the Storm
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is coiling for a significant move. The price remains locked just below $96,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.60—approaching overbought territory. Bollinger Bands are tightening, a classic sign that volatility is about to return. Key support levels are found at $92,700 and $89,500, while the next major resistance sits at $99,000.
This tightening price structure suggests that a breakout or breakdown is imminent. A decisive close above $96,000 could open the door to a rally toward the $100,000 milestone, while a rejection at this level might prolong the current consolidation phase.
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. The retreat of long-term holders and the sharp decline in whale outflows point to a market in transition, with selling pressure easing and the groundwork being laid for renewed accumulation. Profitability has improved, but not to the point of overheating, and on-chain valuations remain balanced. Meanwhile, rising social engagement hints at growing retail interest, setting the stage for increased volatility. As Bitcoin consolidates just below a critical resistance, all eyes are on whether the bulls can reclaim $96,000 and ignite the next leg higher. The coming days could prove decisive, with the potential for a breakout that reshapes the market narrative.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.