🟡 [BTC Analysis] Will it rise to 98K or is it a final trap before falling?

⏰ Timeframe: 4H

Updated at: 08:00 on May 2, 2025

🔍 Market Overview:

BTC/USDT is trading around the 97,000 – 97,100 USD range, after slightly breaking the old resistance zone and maintaining an upward accumulation trend. Many investors expect BTC to reach 98,000 USD in the short term — but is that really certain?

📈 Technical Analysis:

Price Trend:

BTC is moving sideways within a narrow range and has slightly bounced off the support zone of 96K, aiming for the psychological resistance of 98K. This is a zone that had a strong reaction previously.

RSI Indicator (14):

Currently at 61.58, indicating that there is still room for upward movement but no longer excessive momentum. This is a “mid-level” area that is easily trapped if not accompanied by volume.

MACD:

MACD has just crossed above the signal line and the histogram has turned positive → confirming that buying pressure is returning. However, the slope is still weak → upward force has not exploded yet.

Volume Oscillator:

Volume is weakening (-14.32%), indicating that buying pressure is not strong enough to confirm a breakout without supporting news.

🎯 Short-term Scenario:

If BTC breaks above 98,200 USD (with increased volume):

→ High probability of breaking the old peak, next target: 99,500 – 100,000 USD

If rejected at the 98K area:

→ Easily pushed back to the support zone: 96,200 – 95,800 USD

📌 Suggested Strategy:

Do not FOMO at this time.

Observe the reaction at 98K. If there is a real breakout with confirmed volume, then consider going long.

Short exploration:

Can consider lightly shorting around 97,800 – 98,000 USD, stop loss above 98,300 USD if the price is clearly rejected.

📉 Personally, I have mentioned earlier that only 10% of capital should be allocated for exploratory short positions – so even if the market reverses, the risk level remains within control.