At 8:30 PM tonight, the impact of non-farm payroll data on the cryptocurrency market mainly manifests in the following aspects:

1. Investor Risk Appetite

• Strong Data: Indicates a healthy U.S. economy and a good job market, enhancing investor confidence in traditional financial markets, leading to an increase in risk appetite. Funds may flow from the cryptocurrency market to stocks, bonds, and other traditional risk assets, causing cryptocurrency prices to drop.

• Weak Data: Suggests that the economy may face challenges, increasing investor concerns about traditional markets, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. Some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, viewing it as a safe haven or high-yield asset, driving cryptocurrency prices up.

2. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

• Rate Hike Expectations: Strong non-farm payroll data may strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, tightening monetary policy and reducing market liquidity. In a high-interest-rate environment, funds tend to favor traditional stable yield financial instruments, putting selling pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

• Rate Cut Expectations: Weak non-farm payroll data may lead the market to expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a loose policy or cut rates, increasing market liquidity and directing funds into the cryptocurrency market, driving prices up.

3. Dollar Index Correlation

Non-farm payroll data is closely related to the dollar index. Strong non-farm data usually boosts the dollar index, while cryptocurrencies often exhibit a negative correlation with the dollar index—when the dollar strengthens, cryptocurrency prices tend to fall; conversely, weak non-farm data can weaken the dollar, potentially increasing cryptocurrency prices.

4. Market Sentiment and Short-Term Volatility

When non-farm data is released, market sentiment is intensely expressed, leading to severe volatility in cryptocurrencies. Investors quickly adjust their investment strategies based on the data's performance, resulting in significant price fluctuations in virtual currencies over a short period, typically lasting 1 to 3 trading days.

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