$DOGE $PEPE $TRUMP
According to the schedule, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will hold a rate meeting on May 6-7 local time.
The CME "Fed Watch" tool shows that the probability of a rate cut next week is only 5.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 94.4%. However, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting has risen to 65.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in June is 34.5%.
Although Fed Chairman Powell and other officials have recently stated that the Fed may be cautious before adjusting its policy, traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a full 100 basis points before the end of this year.
City Index and Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that weak economic data in the first quarter of the United States may push the Fed to cut interest rates, and the Fed is now more likely to take interest rate cuts more quickly. And the weak data may also encourage Trump to relax tariff policies and speed up the conclusion of a trade agreement.
Navellier & Associates chief investment officer said: "If the US government announces a series of trade agreements soon, optimism will rise and the Fed may cut interest rates soon. If it drags on for weeks or even months, damage to the supply chain and inevitable inflation may cause stagflation, which is very unfavorable for the US stock market."
Cleveland Fed President Hammack recently said that if economic data can provide clear direction by June, the Fed may take action in June. Fed Governor Waller, who has long been hawkish in monetary policy, has continued to turn to dovish in recent days, repeatedly emphasizing that if the high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration force US companies to lay off more employees, he will support rate cuts to protect the US labor market.
The market is currently paying close attention to the US non-farm payrolls report for April, which will be released on Friday. Economists warn that the US labor market may experience severe turbulence due to the Trump administration's tariff policy, which in turn greatly increases the probability that the financial market will start the first rate cut this year in June.
