Understanding Where the Economy’s Headed — and What It Means for Bitcoin

The business cycle gives us clues about the future of markets, including Bitcoin. Let’s break down the key indicators:

🔹 Leading Business Cycle Index

This indicator often shifts 6–9 months before markets react. It even tends to move before the ISM PMI, making it an early warning signal for economic changes.

🔹 ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index)

This tracks the current state of the economy. A reading above 50 signals growth, while below 50 points to a slowdown. The latest number came in at 49 — not great, but not alarming either.

📉 The recent dip is largely due to pressure on manufacturers, especially from trade tariffs. But there’s a bright spot...

🔹 Copper Prices Are Rising

Copper is crucial in manufacturing and tech, and its recovery could signal a rebound in industrial activity.

⚙️ Financial Conditions Index (GMI)

While we don’t know its exact formula, this index has a solid reputation for reflecting overall market health.

Bottom Line:

Despite some short-term concerns, the broader outlook hints at a potential economic recovery. That’s bullish for Bitcoin ($BTC), which often thrives when global conditions improve.