Bitcoin enters May 2025 with new momentum, rising over 14% in the past 30 days and is now only about 6.3% away from the important $100,000 mark. Behind this price increase, clear demand for Bitcoin has shifted to positive for the first time since late February, indicating a change in on-chain behavior.
However, new capital flows — particularly from ETFs in the US — remain low compared to 2024, implying that institutional investor confidence has not fully returned. According to MEXC COO Tracy Jin, if current conditions are maintained, a summer rally towards $150,000 is entirely possible, as market sentiment is increasingly shifting to a bullish trend.
Bitcoin demand is increasing, but there is still a lack of new capital inflow
The clear demand for Bitcoin has recently shown a significant recovery, increasing to 65,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This figure is considerably higher than the bottom on March 27, when clear demand — defined as the net change in 30 days of the holdings of all investor groups — fell to a deep negative of -311,000 BTC.
Clear demand reflects the total change in balances across wallets and provides insight into whether capital is flowing into or out of the Bitcoin network.
Although current demand is still significantly lower than the peaks of early 2024, a noteworthy breakout occurred on April 24: clear demand for Bitcoin turned positive and remained positive for six consecutive days, after nearly two months of continuous capital outflows.
Clear demand for Bitcoin | Source: CryptoQuant
Despite improvements, broad demand momentum remains weak. The continued lack of significant new capital inflows suggests that much of the recent accumulation activity may come from current holders rather than new capital entering the market.
For Bitcoin to experience sustainable price increases, both clear demand and demand momentum need to grow simultaneously and continuously. Until this synchronization occurs, the current stable state may not be sufficient to support a strong price breakout or sustain it.
Capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US is still much lower than in 2024
The amount of Bitcoin purchased through ETFs in the US has hardly changed since the end of March, fluctuating within a net daily capital flow range of -5,000 to +3,000 BTC.
This level of activity contrasts sharply with the strong capital inflows at the end of 2024, when daily purchases often exceeded 8,000 BTC and contributed to the first significant price increase of Bitcoin approaching the $100,000 mark.
As of now in 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have only accumulated a net of about 28,000 BTC — far less than the over 200,000 BTC that was purchased in the same period last year.
This decline reflects a decrease in demand from institutions, which has historically been a major driver of significant price fluctuations.
Bitcoin: Net capital inflow into spot ETFs in the US by year | Source: CryptoQuant
On the other hand, there are early signs of a slight recovery, with capital inflow into ETFs starting to increase recently. However, the current level is still not enough to support a sustainable upward trend.
ETF activity is often seen as an indicator of institutional investor confidence, and the significant increase in purchasing volume reflects that confidence has returned to Bitcoin's medium-term trend.
Until this capital flow returns robustly, the overall market may struggle to generate the momentum needed for a prolonged price increase.
Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark as the upward momentum returns despite macro pressure
Bitcoin's price has risen over 14% in the last 30 days, recovering strongly after falling below $75,000 in April.
This new momentum appears as BTC demonstrates relative stability amidst macroeconomic instability and policy pressures, including Trump's tariffs affecting risk assets.
Although the entire crypto market has been affected, Bitcoin appears to be trending away from the rest, showing lower sensitivity to external shocks compared to other digital assets.
BTC 4-hour price chart | Source: TradingView
Currently, BTC is only about 6.3% away from the $100,000 mark and less than 17% from potentially reaching $110,000. According to Tracy Jin, market sentiment is gradually shifting back to positive:
“In addition to short-term price fluctuations, increased demand from institutions and supply reduction mechanisms in the context of macroeconomic instability indicate a structural shift in Bitcoin's role in the global financial market. BTC is being used as a hedge against inflation and an alternative to the fiat-based financial model. Its liquidity, scalability, programmability, and global accessibility provide a modern, reliable alternative for many businesses compared to traditional financial instruments,” Jin stated.
According to Jin, a summer rally towards $150,000 is entirely feasible. She emphasizes that the price range around $95,000 is likely to become the launch point for a decisive breakout beyond $100,000 in the coming days.
“If global trade tensions continue to stabilize and institutions keep accumulating, a summer rally reaching $150,000 is possible and could even extend to $200,000 by 2026. Overall, the external environment remains favorable for an upward trend, especially with the rise of stock market indices on Friday, which could support Bitcoin over the weekend.”
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.