Opinion: Bitcoin may benefit from expectations of a U.S. economic recession, Federal Reserve policy faces challenges
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitcoin is expected to benefit in the scenario where a U.S. economic recession becomes the 'baseline scenario expectation.' Multiple sources have a pessimistic view on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter unexpectedly turned negative, and trade tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and unemployment rates, making the extent and timing of interest rate cuts critical. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool shows that the market has conservative expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with little change expected before 2025. Cryptocurrency market participants are weighing the direction of Federal Reserve policy, and well-known trader Skew states that the probability of interest rate cuts is rising, as the Federal Reserve is more focused on economic weakness.
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