Binance announced the upgrade of Thorchain. After looking at the relevant information about this Thorchain upgrade, it mainly involves the implementation of debt restructuring.

Due to unreasonable design of the mechanism and the decline of the $RUNE token price relative to BTC, Thorchain owes $200 million in debt. Therefore, Thorchain issued TCY tokens equivalent to the debt to the creditors, and holding TCY allows one to earn 10% of the Thorchain platform's revenue. The upgrade is expected to take place on May 1, 2025, and the TCY token will officially be activated on May 5.

Here are my thoughts on Thorchain:

Although this debt-to-equity swap is unfair to creditors, it is undoubtedly beneficial for Thorchain itself, and the 10% yield is not high. After the recent Bybit hacking incident, the deep liquidity moat of Thorchain has become even more prominent. However, it is also under public pressure, as both the debt and the hacking incident are not commendable matters.

In the long run, the true revenue of the protocol is the best standard for assessing the project. Therefore, the valuation of RUNE should return to real earnings, excluding the 10% portion.

Based on the data from the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, filtering out the impact of the Bybit hack, the annual revenue is approximately $30 million, which calculates to a reasonable price of $540 million FDV, which is about the same as now.