There is a hypothesis circulating regarding the trend of the Bitcoin price in the coming months that predicts a 50% increase.
This hypothesis is based on the analysis of the historical trend, and in particular on the repetition of a pattern that in the past has indeed led to increases of 50%.
If this pattern were to repeat itself this year as well, the price of BTC could be headed towards $150,000.
The key to identifying this pattern is the simultaneity of three events occurring in the USA: a low financial leverage, retail sales higher than expected, and aggressive signals from the central bank on monetary policy.
These are data concerning the economy and finance of the USA, and are linked to parameters such as price inflation, interest rates, and the level of leverage in speculative markets.
In the past, there were at least three similar situations, one in July 2021, a second at the beginning of 2023, and the last at the beginning of 2024, and every time this situation has led to price increases of Bitcoin exceeding 50%.
In July 2021, a rise began that was equal to 76%, while at the beginning of 2023 it was slightly above 50%. At the beginning of 2024, it was even above 80%.