🐽2025.5.1 Wishing everyone a happy holiday in advance

Market Outlook👋

- Yesterday, the PCE and GDP data were released, causing a short-term decline in the market, but $btc didn't even manage to fill the CME gap between 91700-92525.

< In recent days, the ETF and various large consortiums have been actively participating, and countries are advancing their strategic reserves, which has indeed laid some foundation for the market.

▰▰▰ May should be said to be a month with relatively more uncertainties; just counting, there are a bunch of significant events that could change the financial market landscape.

1) I don’t know why, but hardly anyone has mentioned the standoff at the India-Pakistan border🚨 India has threatened to go to war within 36 hours, which means today.

- Previously, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran military readiness have led to significant fluctuations in market capitalization. India may not be as formidable as the big goose, but it is stronger than Iran, and a war black swan will always cause substantial market volatility.

2) The US GDP data released yesterday was very poor, with the probability of recession skyrocketing. Another key data point, the PCE, is surprisingly still being rolled back despite Trump’s trade war, 😪 it’s absurdly fake.

Next month, $6 trillion in US bonds will mature, and the economy is indeed struggling to hold up, looking for an excuse to lower interest rates.

3) The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also nearing its end, and the distribution of interests has already been agreed upon at the negotiation table, just waiting for an official announcement. A ceasefire and peace dove is a positive for the stock market, but has the opposite effect on safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold.

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📈 Market Analysis

On the market, the resistance around $BTC near 9.5 is exceptionally strong; despite a week of significant capital inflow, it has not truly broken through. However, large capital continues to buy in, and exchanges are experiencing net outflows. Historically, every time this situation occurs, the probability of a subsequent breakout is very high. It just depends on which mines will be detonated this month, and how the big players will maneuver with these major events.

It is still recommended to use the fee discount

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