01 Yesterday's Review

US stocks were under overall pressure due to a decline in employment numbers and negative GDP growth, leading to a spread of risk-averse sentiment in the market. BTC also retraced, hitting a low of around 93000 during the session. If GDP experiences negative growth again in the second quarter, it will officially enter a 'technical recession,' which is unfavorable for risk assets.

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02 Today's Analysis

Technical Aspect:

BTC briefly fell below the lower edge of the channel yesterday but quickly recovered; we need to observe whether this is a false breakdown or a buildup for downward movement.

The red resistance line continues to suppress the price; if successfully broken, it is expected to test the resistance level of 97100.

A large amount of liquidity is gathered around 92900; if it breaks down again, it will likely trigger a waterfall decline, easily inciting panic selling.

Fundamental Aspect:

Signs of a slowdown in the US economy have begun to appear, and we need to pay attention to subsequent key data such as employment and CPI to confirm the macro recession trend.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations are fluctuating, disrupting market sentiment.

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03 Key Ranges

Short-term support levels: 92900 / 91650 / 88950

Short-term resistance levels: 96188 / 97100 / 99500

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04 Medium to Long-term View

The supply zone at the daily level remains strong, and until an effective breakthrough of 99500, the overall structure is bearish. At this stage, shorting offers better cost-effectiveness; if the price approaches the resistance level without breaking, consider light short positions.

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05 Today's Recommendation: Wait and See / Light Short at High Levels

It is not advisable to chase shorts at the current position; it is recommended to wait for a rebound to test resistance levels above 96100. If it rises without breaking, a short can be attempted with a stop-loss set above 99500.

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