Bitcoin Price Analysis: Uptrend or Trap? Bitcoin Flirts with Breakout.🙅♂️
🧠 Arthur Hayes Reinforces Prediction: BTC to $1 million by 2028.
Amid Political Pressure and Institutional Accumulation,
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a critical decision zone, consolidating between $93,000 and $95,500, as the market speculates whether the next move will be a bullish breakout or a new correction. The technical structure remains positive after breaking a descending wedge, but immediate resistance still holds the price.
🧟♂️ U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the market may face more pain before a possible final boom — and institutional flow data and sentiment suggest that upward pressure is building.
"This will take a little, it has NOTHING TO DO WITH RATES, it just left us with bad numbers, but when the boom starts, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!"
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📊 Technical Analysis — Charts 1W, 1D, and 4H
Weekly Chart (1W):
💥• BTC broke a descending wedge, a classic bullish reversal pattern.
💥• There is a resumption of bullish structure with the formation of ascending bottoms.
💥• The price advances above the 50-period moving average, regaining buying momentum.
Daily Chart (1D):
💥• BTC faces clear resistance in the $95,870 region, aligned with the 99-period moving average.
💥• This zone has become the main technical obstacle for a direct advance towards $100,000.
💥• The price has been testing this range, but still without a daily close above the critical level.
4-Hour Chart (4H):
💥• BTC is consolidating between $93,100 and $95,500, with multiple rejections at the top.
💥• The support base appears solid, with active buying absorption in the $93,000 region.
💥• The pattern suggests accumulation at the top, with latent breakout pressure.
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🚀🪙 🚀High Accumulation — Institutional Flow Explodes.🧨
💥• Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. have already totaled over 6,900 BTC this week.
💥• The total capital volume in the crypto market jumped from $1.5 billion to $15 billion in just 10 days, according to Glassnode.
💥• The accumulation trend score also shows that whales and large investors are buying aggressively.
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💫👻💫 Market Sentiment — Greed and Expectation
💥• BTC's fear and greed index reached 56% on April 30, indicating a clear shift towards greed.
💥• This movement represents a significant change in perception after weeks of fear post-correction.
The market has not yet entered euphoria, allowing room for further appreciation without immediate technical exhaustion.🤑
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🎯 Technical Objectives — Break or Retracement?
According to analyst Ali Martinez:
🗣️ "The price of BTC must consistently close above $95,870 to recover towards the next target of around $114,230."
On the other hand, a loss of support with a close below $93,000 could trigger a correction to the $88,000 range, before a new attempt to rise.
🧠 Arthur Hayes Reinforces Prediction: BTC to $1 million by 2028.
During TOKEN2049 in Dubai, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, reinforced his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028, stating categorically:
"It's time to go long."
Hayes argues that:
💥. The U.S. will be forced to inject liquidity back into the markets, in a move similar to quantitative easing (QE).
💥. The current market stress driven by rates echoes previous crisis periods, such as the third quarter of 2022, just before the FTX collapse and the injection of $2.5 trillion by the Fed through buybacks.
Hayes also highlighted that:
💥. Jerome Powell will likely not help Trump stabilize the markets, given their turbulent relationship.
💥. However, relative value hedge funds should fill this gap, indirectly injecting liquidity through Treasury buybacks.
👁️👃👁️Hayes' view places the current BTC scenario within a liquidity expansion cycle that is still in the early stage, which, according to him, favors aggressive long-term positioning.
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✅ Final Diagnosis
Bitcoin remains in constructive consolidation, with strong support, increasing institutional flow, and an absence of clear distribution signals.
There is no euphoria, but there is tension.
It's not the peak. It's the pause before the election.
If it breaks $95,870 consistently, the path to $100,000 and beyond will be technically cleared.
But if it strongly loses $93,000, the pullback to $88,000 may be inevitable — just to prepare for the next jump.
