Bitcoin's reaction to U.S. GDP figures is exaggerated, as data shows BTC sales in recent days increased close to the $95,000 level as short-term traders take profits.
Key takeaways:
U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, well below expectations of 0.3%, raising fears of recession.
Bitcoin faces selling pressure with its spot volume delta dropping $300 million in 3 days.
Whales are accumulating BTC, but smaller holders are selling, indicating profit-taking.
The price of Bitcoin
BTC
€83,100
fell below $93,000 on April 30, after U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed a contraction of -0.3% in the first quarter. While GDP did not meet expectations of +0.3%, the GDP Price Index surged to 3.7%, its highest level since August 2023. The probability of a recession in 2025, according to Polymarket, reached 67%, with consumer confidence at its lowest level since May 2020. Meanwhile, in March 2025, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation fell to 2.3% (above the expected 2.2%), and core PCE dropped to 2.6% (in line with expectations). Still, February's core PCE was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%, indicating a mixed inflation trend.
Short-term bearish, long-term bullish for Bitcoin?
During the COVID-19 induced market crash of 2020, BTC initially followed traditional markets before surging over 300% by the end of the year as global M2 money supply increased, reflecting its appeal during periods of monetary expansion. However, stagflation, highlighted by the -0.3% GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2025 and a GDP price index of 3.7%, poses short-term risks.
Cointelegraph noted that high inflation often deters retail crypto investment, as seen in 2022 when BTC fell by 60% amid Federal Reserve rate hikes. March 2025 PCE inflation data suggests cooling pressures that could alleviate Fed rate hike fears and support Bitcoin.
On the other hand, upward revisions for February (overall PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%, core PCE to 3.0%) indicate persistent inflation, keeping uncertainty about the Fed's next moves. Although fears of stagflation may pressure BTC in the short term, its long-term hedging potential remains valid.
Bitcoin experiences $300 million in selling pressure in spot market
The Bitcoin spot volume delta fell by more than $300 million in the last three days, increasing potential selling pressure on BTC around the $95,000 level.
Glassnode data indicates that the 7-day moving average of the BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows for consecutive days. Negative inflows progressively increased with a smaller flow of $16 million on April 26, followed by $30.9 million on April 27, $76.1 million on April 28, and $193.4 million on April 29.#AirdropSafetyGuide
