My personal opinion: The probability of a rate cut is less than 33.3%

Two reasons

/ A sudden rate cut will only worsen the economic recession in the long run

The decline in GDP has already become a fact, the increase in unemployment is also a fact, and the high level of U.S. debt is indeed a fact. The effect of a rate cut is minimal

/ Even with a rate cut, banks can still choose to refuse to lend

In such an economic recession? Would banks still lend you money? It might be better not to cut rates.