April 2025 has officially come to a close, and it has been another impressive month for Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency in the world recorded a +14.53% increase for the month, marking the strongest April performance since 2021 and a 29.29% increase compared to last year. Although strong, this rally is still slower than previous April surges seen in 2013, 2017, and 2020.

Many believe that recent news about Trump's proposed tax has played a part in driving the April rally. Now, as the market enters May, investors are asking a big question: Can Bitcoin maintain this upward momentum?

What History Tells Us About May

Looking at the bigger picture, Q2 2025 has started strong. Bitcoin rose +14.53% in April alone, and so far, Q2 has increased +26.45% compared to the same period last year — making it the best Q2 since 2021.

Historically, May has been a mixed month for Bitcoin. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended the month in the green 9 times and in the red 6 times. This gives May a 67% historical chance of closing higher, with an average return for May of +7.94%.

What Could Make May More Volatile Than Usual

However, this year may be different. Several major events are unfolding that could make May one of the most volatile months for Bitcoin:

  • Meetings and policy speeches from the Federal Reserve could shift market sentiment. Any mention of the possibility of interest rate cuts — or an unexpected hawkish stance — could quickly impact Bitcoin's price.

  • The old Wall Street saying 'Sell in May and go away' warns of market weakness during the summer months. However, some cryptocurrency analysts believe this advice may not hold true for Bitcoin this time, particularly as global money supply continues to rise and many traders are betting on a prolonged bull market.

A cryptocurrency analyst, Kaduna, stated that while his initial plan was to reduce risk over the next two months, the continuous growth of global money supply has made him rethink that strategy. He believes that selling Bitcoin in May would be a significant mistake considering the current market situation.

With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ongoing global economic uncertainty, this week could shape Bitcoin's trajectory throughout May. Currently, Bitcoin investors are closely watching to see whether May will continue the upward trend — or if volatility will once again throw everything into disarray.