The US GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 was announced at -0.3%, falling short of expectations ❕

This data indicates that the US economy has made a challenging start to 2025 and the risk of a potential recession has increased.

(Expected: 0.2%, Previous: 2.4%). This shows that for the first time since the second quarter of 2022, an economic contraction has occurred, and it is a sign that we are getting closer to the technical definition of a recession.

This contraction following a strong growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter indicates a significant decline in the US economy.

Negative GDP data may exert pressure on the USD, as lower-than-expected growth is generally interpreted as a bear market (negative) for the currency.

Demand for safe-haven assets like gold may increase, while volatility in the stock markets may rise.

Since the US is the world's largest economy, this contraction will also show its effects on global markets.

We may particularly see pressure on (China, Europe) and commodity markets.

In particular, employment data (ADP, Non-Farm Payroll) and inflation indicators will be guiding in determining the direction of this trend.