Here is a brief comparison of the current most discussed crypto ETFs, their status, and probability of approval:
1. iShares Ethereum Trust (BlackRock)
Underlying asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Type: Spot ETF
Status: Under SEC review
Probability of approval: High (60–70%)
Comment: The most promising application due to BlackRock's reputation and the market maturity of ETH.
2. VanEck Ethereum Trust (VanEck)
Underlying asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Type: Spot ETF
Status: Decision postponed
Probability of approval: Moderately high (50–60%)
Comment: VanEck has already had experience with cryptocurrency ETFs, which strengthens the chances, although not as much as BlackRock.
3. Grayscale Ethereum Trust (Grayscale)
Underlying asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Type: Conversion of existing trust to ETF
Status: At the legal review stage
Probability of approval: Medium (40–50%)
Comment: The decision will depend on whether the SEC recognizes ETH as a commodity (like Bitcoin).
4. Ark 21Shares Solana ETF (Ark/21Shares)
Underlying asset: Solana (SOL)
Type: Spot ETF
Status: Early stage of filing
Probability of approval: Low (20–30%)
Comment: Solana is currently perceived by the SEC as a potential security, which significantly reduces the chances.
5. Bitwise Ethereum ETF (Bitwise)
Underlying asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Type: Spot ETF
Status: Postponed
Probability of approval: Medium (40–50%)
Comment: Bitwise has good experience in the crypto space, but lacks institutional weight compared to BlackRock.
6. Hashdex Ethereum ETF (Hashdex)
Underlying asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Type: Hybrid (partly spot, partly futures)
Status: Under review
Probability of approval: Medium (40–50%)
Comment: A hybrid approach may appeal to the SEC, but the novelty of the structure could cause delays.
