Ethereum (ETH), which ranks second in market value, failed to meet investor expectations by lagging behind Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2024. While Bitcoin was breaking record after record, Ethereum struggled to keep up with this upward trend and continued to lose value against BTC.
While Ethereum is expected to surpass its all-time high (ATH) just like it did in 2021, Fidelity Digital Assets, one of the leading investment companies, has published a striking analysis. Fidelity emphasized that ETH is currently trading 'below its fair value' and that this situation presents a significant opportunity for investors.
The report indicates that many on-chain indicators show Ethereum is at low levels. ETH, which went through a challenging period in the first quarter of 2024, experienced a 45% drop from its peak of $3,579 reached in January. Additionally, a 'death cross', which is traditionally considered a bearish signal, occurred in March.
Despite this negative picture, Fidelity states that the medium- and long-term outlook for Ethereum is positive. According to the company's analysis:
On March 9th, the MVRV Z-Score, which shows the difference between Ethereum's market value and its realized value, fell to -0.18, indicating that ETH is trading below its value. Historically, these levels are associated with market bottoms and buying opportunities.
At the same time, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has dropped to zero. This indicates that the majority of investors are holding ETH at a loss and that market capitulation has begun — a situation that is often interpreted as a precursor to potential market bottoms.
Fidelity reminds investors that they should remain cautious despite all this data. The company points out that looking at previous market cycles, there is a possibility that prices could fall a little more before recovering.
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