Is tonight's data release a double whammy or a silver lining?
The previous value of U.S. March ADP employment was 155,000, with an expectation of 115,000.
The expected core PCE price index for March is 2.6, down from a previous value of 2.8.
The final results will still depend on the release.
If the data leans negative, it may lead to a price correction before reaching the short liquidation zone at 96,500;
However, as long as the subsequent entry of bulls is not overly aggressive and the overall leverage remains stable, after a round of downward adjustment, there is still the possibility of a renewed upward attack and the liquidation of short liquidity above.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 AM on May 8 has little chance of a rate cut, but the market is more focused on Powell's stance on June's policy direction.
According to CME's interest rate futures data, the probability of a rate cut in June remains the majority view.
If inflation indicators like PCE further decline this week, it cannot be ruled out that the May meeting may release a slightly accommodative signal, building momentum for the next phase of the market.
