Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and GDP, Friday's Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate will undoubtedly bring great volatility to the market. Theoretically, there are two scenarios:
If the data is favorable: prices will clear the short liquidity above 96,500, and will directly pull towards the 98,000-100,000 direction, then prices will start to pull back, returning to the current consolidation range;
If the data is bearish, it will be unfavorable: prices will not clear the short liquidity of 96,500 and will directly start to pull back; if the subsequent increase in long liquidity is not overly aggressive and the overall leverage is not too high, then after a round of pullback, prices may still have the potential to rise again to clear the short liquidity of 96,500.
Therefore, prepare for both scenarios:
(1) After a second breakthrough of 95,750, new highs will be made, and high short positions need to defend 96,000.
(2) Low long positions are relatively simpler; break-even loss or stop-loss around 93,600. If 93,600 is broken, enter the market at 93,350-92,800. Support around 93,000 is relatively strong; breaking below this will escalate to a daily level adjustment, that is, a pullback to the 92,000-90,000 level. If it holds and rebounds, the adjustment will end, and it will choose a direction upwards. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily chart; in the short term, it is slightly bullish. Be cautious about chasing shorts for now; we can only short on highs.
