#AltcoinETFsPostponed Gold is expected to reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of President Donald Trump's term, according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors and chairman of Hive Digital Technologies.
Holmes said this rise is driven by the restructuring of the global financial system, declining reliance on the dollar, and an unprecedented increase in gold purchases by governments, particularly China.
"I think the goal is to reach $6,000 during President Trump's term," Holmes added. "If tariffs are increased by 25%, the dollar will decline by a similar amount."
Gold held near $3,300 an ounce on Friday, after hitting a high of $3,509 earlier last week before falling $200. While JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) expects gold to reach $4,000 within 12 months, Holmes sees further room to rise if central banks around the world continue their current buying pace.
Benefit from Investing Pro's expertise in mining stock analysis. In an environment heavily influenced by monetary and trade policies, we provide in-depth analysis of gold stock performance, with a special focus on the impact of dollar movements and interest rate expectations on the sector. Receive detailed reports on profitability indicators, debt levels, and growth strategies of major companies, enabling you to build a robust mining investment portfolio that keeps pace with market changes and benefits from price movements.
China's role in the rise of gold
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) emerged as the largest government-level buyer of gold for the fifth consecutive month. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, China added more than 27 tons to its reserves, bringing them to over 2,300 tons, the highest official level in the country's modern history. Unofficial estimates indicate that the true figure may be much higher when accounting for holdings by other government entities such as the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and commercial banks.
Holmes says these purchases are part of China's broader strategy to reduce reliance on the dollar and boost the yuan's credibility as a global trading currency. He added, "Xi Jinping has increased military spending significantly... He also has icebreakers, and he's building nuclear icebreakers because he thinks the Arctic Sea belongs to him," warning that these geopolitical tensions are accelerating the dollar's structural decline.
A new world order is taking shape
The Federal Reserve is facing increasing political pressure to cut interest rates amid escalating trade tensions, while the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for US GDP growth to just 1.2% for 2025. This week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the IMF and World Bank, accusing them of focusing on social policies rather than economic stability and calling for a "reset" of the global monetary system.
Holmes believes this policy shift will further weaken the dollar. He added, "There's a reset button being pushed... and there's a war with the leader of China." He explained that while the BRICS bloc is working to end its dependence on the dollar, the reality is that dollar trading is rising and the euro is declining, indicating that monetary restructuring has already begun.
"I think the dollar will decline in trading... When real interest rates are negative and money is being printed, it leads to devaluations and brings gold back to the forefront as an investment asset," he said.
Gold stocks still lag
Despite the rise in gold prices, Holmes says most investors are still ignoring the opportunities in gold stocks. He explained, "There's a huge opportunity in gold stocks... They fell to just 1% of index fund portfolios, but are now slowly returning to 2%."
Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NIO), the world's largest gold miner, this week reported its highest all-in cost per ounce in nearly a decade at $1,651, but beat earnings expectations thanks to higher gold prices. Holmes sees this as a turning point. "Gold companies are generating massive free cash flow," he added. "They're not acquiring smaller miners; they're buying back their shares and increasing their dividends."
Holmes, who pioneered the development of the franchise model at Franco-Nevada, noted that if gold had been priced at $3,500 at that time, the economic returns on investment would have exploded. "It would have been exponential growth," he said. "If we started making $1 million a day, all the small and medium-sized mining companies would have taken off."
Bitcoin follows in the footsteps of gold
Holmes also believes that Bitcoin is on track to rise in parallel with gold, driven by adoption by new generations and the depreciation of the dollar. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $93,000, and Holmes believes it could reach $250,000 with increased adoption by index funds.
He added, "America will lead the Bitcoin revolution... Adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset, buying more of it, or using it to make America the world's leading Bitcoin mining nation will help replenish our crippled electricity supply and create many jobs."
Holmes concluded by emphasizing the importance of gold and Bitcoin as decentralized hedging instruments: "One is tangible... and the other is virtual, but both should be part of a diversified investment portfolio."