Bitcoin is still oscillating in the 94-95k range, slightly dropping below 94k. Currently, the Bitcoin trend is still upward, but be aware of the possibility of a peak raid; the gathering of short liquidity around 96500 has reached a liquidatable peak, which is very similar to the previous complete breakthrough of 85000.
On the other hand, the liquidity gap at 97k-98k has not been fully filled, so the probability of liquidation at 96500 in the short-term market is very high, but whether it can ultimately enter the liquidation zone above 98k is still very uncertain for Xiao Mei...
Wednesday's small non-farm payroll and GDP, Friday's large non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will certainly bring huge market volatility; there are two theoretical scripts:
If the data is positive: the price will liquidate short-term short liquidity above 96500, and will directly pull towards 98k-100k, followed by a price correction back to the current oscillation range;
If the data is bearish, it is negative: the price will not liquidate the short liquidity at 96500 and will directly begin to correct; if the subsequent increase in long liquidity isn't too aggressive, and the overall leverage isn't too high, then after a round of correction, the price may still potentially rise again to liquidate the short liquidity at 96500.
So prepare for both scenarios:
(1) After the second breakthrough at 95750, there will be a new high, and high short positions need to defend 96000.
(2) Low leverage is relatively simpler; break-even loss or loss near 93600; if 93600 breaks down, then enter the market at 93350-92800. Support around 93.3k is relatively strong; only if it breaks down will it upgrade to a daily-level adjustment, i.e., a correction to 92000-90000. If it holds support and rebounds, the adjustment ends, and it will choose a direction upwards. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily line; in the short term, it is slightly bullish; proceed cautiously with shorts and only short at highs.
Is Trump going to issue coins again?
Following NFT, WLFI, and TRUMP, the fourth Trump-related token is also about to be released. According to this morning's shareholder letter, the digital wallet Truth under its umbrella plans to issue a utility token, which can be subscribed for related paid services, and can be understood as the platform token of the wallet.
I'll give you a script:
1. Everyone starts to complain; Trump is coming to dig into the crypto pool again;
2. Then, the smartest group of people is already prepared; they start to rush at the opening. They say those who rush are fools but secretly think that those who don't rush are the real fools;
3. Then, FOMO sentiment begins to spread; those who firmly refuse to rush at the opening can't help but jump in;
4. After all, the presidential coin issuance will still be very popular, but its sustainability should be a bit worse than the first one;
5. According to the process, it should go public, and this time the controlling team is very likely to be more professional;
6. In the end, it's just a mess, with the entire crypto circle diving down, leaving a group of people who didn't make money and are reluctant to leave, staring blankly.
Binance is distributing money again; hurry to grab the B2 project airdrop!
Binance is distributing money again, this time it's the B2 project airdrop, starting from 4-6 PM!
Subscription time: April 30, 2025, 4:00-6:00 PM (UTC+8)
There are likely many projects waiting in line for TGE and airdrops; whether you can seize this wave of benefits from Binance depends on whether you are diligent in your operations.
The market isn't bad; if it seems bad, it may be that you aren't working hard enough.
May market outlook: Analysis of the most promising Alpha tracks with hundredfold potential
If the May market welcomes explosive trends, the following tracks are most likely to present excess return (Alpha) opportunities:
1. AI + MCP (Modular Computing Protocol), representative projects: DARK, DARK, SKYAI
Logic: The AI track is still the strongest field in the current rebound; some leading projects like $VIRTUAL have already reached historical highs, and capital attention is extremely high.
2. RWA (Real World Assets), representative projects: ONDO, ONDO, TRU, $PENDLE
Logic: The RWA track benefits from traditional financial capital entering the market, possessing long-term growth potential, especially for stable income asset protocols.
3. New forces in the BTC ecosystem, representative projects: ODINDOG, ODINDOG, METHAN, $BUTANE
Logic: As the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as Rune, Layer 2, etc.) heats up, new projects may experience explosive growth.
Finally, Xiao Mei will summarize the on-chain hotspots for everyone.
1/ Teacher San Shang issues coins; the coin address has received over 5000 SOL, the rules exclude Japanese users, and the intentions of Chinese operators are obvious; proceed with caution.
2/ Xiao Jin Dog erupts, focus on $PASTERNAK: former founder of Clout, supporting platform Launchacoin goes live, FDV 18 million.
3/ $Squidllora has issued CA, FDV around 2 million, the leading position is trapped; pay attention to the second phase of price recovery opportunities.
4/ The soil dog chain has become an industrial chain, with batch coin production in the park. Reduce PVP, focus more on narrative + team, and avoid reckless rushing.
5/ $TROLL's control is obvious; the market is being strongly raised, FDV has reached 36 million, continue to observe.
6/ Looking at AI from the CEX direction: $Prompt is expected to recover. After the meme frenzy, the market will return to VC logic; plan ahead.
7/ $Alpaca's actual battle with the market: capital rates surge → plummet → new highs, purely controlled by the market; K-line is meaningless.
After the announcement of Alpaca's delisting from Binance, it surged 20 times, pushing the capital rate from -4% to positive 1.5%, squeezing those who shorted based on the news. After being delisted at 5.2, it will revert to its original state; the question is when to intervene to short.
8/ NFT whale dingalingts promotes meme platform boopdotfun, which may benchmark $PUMP, airdrop upon launch; keep an eye out.
9/ Binance Wallet will launch $B2 tonight at 8 PM; if you have BTC staking, don't miss the airdrop!
