Big holders are selling and fear is hitting hard
Ethereum is close to a full capitulation phase
Here’s what’s happening and what’s next
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☞ 2
𓁼 Ethereum (ETH) continued its steep decline, dropping to $1,452 with an 8.4% loss in just 24 hours, as broader crypto sentiment deteriorated alongside worsening macroeconomic indicators
𓁼 The price range for the day has tightened between $1,586 and $1,398, suggesting
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☞ 3
𓁼 On-chain data shows the NUPL indicator for ETH has re-entered the “capitulation” territory for the first time in over a year
𓁼 Historically, when NUPL hits these deep red zones, it signals that long-term holders have moved predominantly into loss positions, often
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☞ 4
𓁼 Over the past three months, Ethereum’s value has fallen by roughly 65% from its local peak near $4,000, indicating a deep retracement typical of major bear cycles
𓁼 The speed and magnitude of this drop resemble previous periods of macro deleveraging when broader
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☞ 5
𓁼 Technical indicators suggest further room for downside, as the weekly RSI sits precariously at 32, barely above the official “oversold” threshold
𓁼 ETH has already lost the critical 1.0 Fibonacci support level (~$1,550), and fractal analyses from prior cycles suggest the next major support cluster lies between $990 and $1,240
𓁼 If RSI fully breaches into the 20–30 range, history suggests another 10–20% drop could materialize rapidly
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☞ 6
𓁼 DeFi platform liquidations are actively exacerbating sell pressure on Ethereum
𓁼 In the past week alone, protocols like Spark, Morpho, and Aave reported cumulative liquidations exceeding $200 million, primarily collateralized by ETH
𓁼 As liquidations cascade, automated sell orders accelerate, creating negative feedback loops that deepen volatility and thin out order books
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☞ 7
𓁼 Ethereum’s native staking market is also flashing early warning signs, with liquid staking platforms like Lido experiencing small but notable outflows
𓁼 The ETH withdrawal queue on the Beacon Chain has expanded, suggesting some validators may be de-risking amid fears of further price erosion
𓁼 Elevated unstaking rates often correlate with panic-driven exits near macro market bottoms
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☞ 8
𓁼 Macro conditions remain hostile for crypto assets, as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone despite clear signs of weakening economic growth
𓁼 Recent US tariff escalations, sticky core inflation, and rising Treasury yields have sparked a renewed flight to safety, draining liquidity from high-beta assets like ETH
𓁼 If financial conditions tighten further, Ethereum could face an even harsher funding environment in the months ahead
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☞ 9
𓁼 Liquidity fragmentation across exchanges is another hidden risk, with many centralized platforms showing thinner ETH order books compared to 2022 levels
𓁼 In bear markets, shallow liquidity amplifies price swings, meaning even modest sell orders can trigger disproportionate moves downward
𓁼 This sets the stage for potential “liquidity vacuum” events if key psychological levels are breached
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☞ 10
𓁼 However, capitulation does not signal the death of Ethereum’s long-term prospects
𓁼 Historically, Ethereum bottoms have occurred when market participants overwhelmingly price in worst-case scenarios, creating asymmetric upside for patient accumulators
𓁼 The fundamentals of Ethereum - including its transition to Proof-of-Stake, Layer 2 expansion, and dominant smart contract share - remain intact despite near-term price destruction
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☞ 11
𓁼 Key price levels to monitor now include interim support near $1,300, historical pivot zones around $1,180, and the psychological $1,000 floor
𓁼 A decisive loss of $1,300 could open floodgates for high-frequency traders and algorithms targeting liquidity pockets around $1,000
𓁼 Conversely, stabilization above $1,300 could spark a relief rally toward $1,550–$1,700, though it would still occur within a broader bearish structure
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☞ 12
𓁼 Ethereum’s path to recovery will likely be messy and prolonged, echoing past cycles where smart money accumulated during maximum pessimism
𓁼 True market bottoms are only visible in hindsight, but extreme fear, mass liquidations, and underwater long-term holders form classic conditions for generational entry points
𓁼 As difficult as it may seem emotionally, capitulation phases have historically offered the greatest opportunities for those willing to endure volatility and time horizons beyond the next few months
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