The Signals report published by Fidelity in the first quarter of 2025 points out that Ethereum's current market value may fall below its potential. The report provides important clues that both technical indicators and on-chain data present, which investors should consider.
Fidelity points to the classic 'death cross' that formed in March for Ethereum, which has lost 45% of its value since the peak level in January 2025. This technical structure occurs when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day average and is generally considered a short-term weakness signal. However, some data may paint a positive picture in the long term.
One of the prominent indicators is that the MVRV Z-Score is hovering around -0.18. This value suggests that Ethereum's current market price is low compared to historical averages and may be close to the 'bottom' region. Analysts generally use this metric to identify long-term buying opportunities.
The market capitalization ratio of Ethereum against Bitcoin continues to show a downward trend. The ratio, close to levels seen in 2020, has been in a steady decline since the end of 2022, which is considered a sign that ETH is performing weakly against BTC.
Meanwhile, user interactions on the Ethereum network are increasing. With the adoption of layer-2 solutions, a new record was set with 13.6 million users reached by the end of the first quarter of 2025. This increase indicates that the usage area of the network has expanded and its infrastructural strength has increased.
On the technical analysis side, it is noteworthy that Ethereum has crossed above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 12-hour chart. This technical development, seen for the first time since December 2024, can be interpreted as the beginning of a potential upward trend.
The Fidelity report also mentions the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio. The fact that this indicator hovers at the 'zero' level reveals that investors are neither in profit nor in loss, and the market is in a neutral or slightly hopeless mood.
On the macroeconomic side, it is emphasized that external factors such as global economic uncertainties, interest rate policies, and regulatory risks may continue to exert pressure on Ethereum. Therefore, it is noted that investors should be cautious against short-term volatility.
Overall, the Fidelity report acknowledges that Ethereum's long-term potential is still strong; however, it emphasizes that short-term risks should not be overlooked. Ethereum may currently be close to bottom levels, but this does not mean that everything will improve immediately.
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