#Write2Earn The U.S. economy, that giant that once seemed untameable, now teeters on a tightrope, between exacerbated trade tensions and a loss of domestic confidence. If some spoke of a mere squall, the storm could be of unexpected violence.
In summary
The U.S. economy wavers under the weight of trade tensions and declining domestic confidence.
Growth forecasts are falling, while the threat of a recession settles in durably.
U.S. policymakers are engaged in a race against time.
An economy under pressure: when the illusion of resilience crumbles
Bloomberg's latest barometer is not a fairy tale. In just a few months, forecasts have darkened: a 45% chance of a recession this year, up from only 30% previously.
A figure that resonates like a whip in the ears of optimists. The expected growth for 2025 would reach only 1.4%, and 1.5% the following year, forecasts that are very far from the expected boost.
The main culprit? A trade war reignited with massive tariffs, especially against China, that essential partner that has become an economic adversary. Households, which form the beating heart of the U.S. economy, are beginning to slow down. Their spending, the true fuel of GDP, is decelerating, foreshadowing a less optimistic future.
This pressure on domestic demand is compounded by a widespread loss of confidence. Companies, caught between fiscal uncertainties and rising costs, hesitate to invest. Even the typically unflappable American consumer is starting to look at their wallet with concern.
Tariffs, declining exports: America is retracting, the world holds its breath
The current trade policy resembles a risky game of poker. With tariffs reaching historic levels (almost 23%, according to Bloomberg Economics), imports temporarily exploded — companies sought to fill their inventories before the tax took full effect.
But this artificial boom hides a gloomier trend: a prolonged decline in exports, affected by retaliations from Asia and elsewhere.
This is compounded by an increasingly alarmist IMF, which is lowering its global growth forecasts and pointing to the domino effect that these protectionist measures could provoke. Because if the U.S. economy coughs, the rest of the world runs a great risk of contagion.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is about to release decisive figures on GDP. Unless a diplomatic miracle or a spectacular internal boost occurs, it is unlikely that these results will reverse the trend.
In conclusion, what was brewing yesterday in the shadows is now played in broad daylight: the U.S. economy, once the engine of global dynamism, is sliding toward a sharper slowdown than expected. China, for its part, is adding fuel to the fire by betting on gold and cryptocurrencies, to the detriment of the dollar. One thing is certain: the cards are now in the hands of policymakers… but time is of the essence, and the markets' patience may soon reach its limits.