The belief of $SOL is actually forged through hardship!

SOL is so strong right now, not because of technical hype, but due to three main strategies: belief, asset expansion, and chip locking.

First, let's talk about belief. SOL fell from $259 to $8, a drop of 97%, which is strikingly similar to ETH and BTC in 2018. During the worst of the crash, speculators all fled, leaving behind only die-hard fans. Once the market rebounds and the profit effect kicks in, everyone rushes in, and the belief naturally solidifies. SOL's survival this time relies on not collapsing during the bear market; even the FTX collapse couldn't kill it. Now, with new funds brought in by the BTC ETF, how can this belief not be strong?

Next, let's discuss asset expansion. The SOL ecosystem now relies heavily on the MEME coin BONK and the DePIN narrative. BONK's recent airdrop was executed well, directly increasing the number of active addresses on-chain from 200,000 to 1,000,000, with all liquidity locked. DePIN is even more aggressive, branding SOL as a “productivity public chain,” attracting Web2 users. For a public chain to stand out, it’s not about how advanced the technology is, but whether it can tell new stories and create new assets!

Finally, let's talk about chip structure. FTX holds 55.8 million SOL, accounting for 13% of the total supply, which is now locked due to bankruptcy, similar to ETH 2.0 staking. With a staking rate of 70% and DeFi lock-ups, the circulating chips in the market are pitifully scarce. The more concentrated the chips, the easier it is to pump the price. Now, with institutional funds entering SOL, it’s tough not to see a price increase!

How long can SOL rise? In the short term, the bull market isn’t over; the popularity of DePIN and BONK can still be hyped again, and institutional funds are coming in. A price of $300-350 is not a dream. But be cautious of overheating and pullbacks; if the macro market fluctuates, SOL will shake too.

The medium-term risk lies in the unlocking of FTX. If FTX suddenly releases its SOL, a 10%-20% pullback is inevitable. However, if it can withstand the pressure post-unlocking, combined with new narratives in AI and GameFi, reaching $400-500 is also possible.

In the long term, it depends on whether DePIN can be realized and if the SOL ecosystem can maintain its lead. If it truly becomes a “productivity public chain,” $1,000 is not the ceiling. But if ETH optimizes Gas fees or a new public chain emerges, SOL’s good days may come to an end.

#币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普税改

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