One, technical moat
The core technology of FHE is Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), certified by the US NIST as a post-quantum encryption standard. This technology solves the problem of direct computation on data in an encrypted state and is suitable for scenarios such as AI privacy protection and cross-chain secure collaboration, aligning with future trends in data security and compliance. Compared with solutions like ZK and MPC, FHE is more versatile in complex computing tasks, with a high technical barrier.
Two, market demand and ecosystem collaboration
AI and Web3 integration: FHE provides an end-to-end encryption environment for AI agents and has collaborated with DeepSeek (medical AI), SingularityNET (distributed AI), etc., landing in scenarios like medical diagnostics and DeFi strategies.
Three, partner endorsement
Received investments from top institutions like Binance Labs and Animoca Brands, and collaborated deeply with technical parties such as Chainlink and Zama to enhance technological credibility.
Four, financial model and token economy
Token distribution: Total supply of 1 billion tokens, initial circulation of 24.9%, community and airdrop account for over 40%, with a longer lock-up period for investor and team tokens (12-month cliff + 48-month linear release), reducing short-term selling pressure.
Five, valuation comparison
Current FDV is about $66 million (price $0.1), lower than the previous financing valuation ($100 million), and similar AI security projects (such as Nillion) have higher valuations, indicating potential upside.
Six, risk management perspective: Identify key risks
1. Challenges in technology implementation
The overhead of FHE computation is significant, with real-time constraints, especially in AI nonlinear operations (such as deep learning) where performance bottlenecks are pronounced. Commercialization relies on hardware acceleration and algorithm optimization, making large-scale applications difficult to achieve in the short term.
2. Market and liquidity risks
Release of circulating supply: In the next year, the team's and investors' tokens will be unlocked, potentially increasing selling pressure.
3. Market sentiment fluctuations: The current circulating market value is about $25 million, and trading volume depends on platforms like Binance. It is susceptible to manipulation when liquidity is insufficient.
4. Regulatory and compliance risks
FHE technology may involve data privacy regulations (such as GDPR) and needs to address policy uncertainties in various countries.
Seven: Reasonable price range, safety margin calculation
1. 'Buy quality assets at a reasonable price' principle: In terms of value reference, if benchmarking similar projects (such as ZK track projects with FDV generally above $1 billion), the scarcity of FHE technology can support an FDV of $500 million to $1 billion (corresponding to a unit price of $0.5 to $1).
2. Current price assessment: The current price is $0.1 (FDV $100 million), which is lower than the previous financing valuation. If the project can deliver on its technical roadmap, there exists a potential space of 5-10 times.
Eight, bottom-fishing logic validation
Investor cost price is about $0.0625 (financing valuation of $62.5 million / total supply of 1 billion). If the token price remains below this level for a long time, institutions may defend or increase holdings, forming support.
Nine, investment advice:
1. 'Patience' and 'steady pursuit of victory'
2. Long-term holding conditions, technological breakthroughs: Need to observe the actual adoption rate of FHE in AI agents, cross-chain computing, and other scenarios.
3. Ecosystem expansion: Focus on user growth in cooperation projects with DeepSeek, SingularityNET, etc.
Ten, short-term strategy
Support level: $0.06 to $0.07 (early financing cost range).
Risk point: If it falls below $0.05, it may trigger panic selling.
Eleven, conclusion: The reasonable valuation and future potential of FHE
Conservative valuation: Based on technical moat and market demand, the reasonable FDV range is $500 million to $1 billion (unit price $0.5 to $1), requiring 1-2 years to validate technology implementation.
Risk warning: If the project fails to solve performance bottlenecks or encounters regulatory challenges, FDV may fall below $100 million.
Final decision definition: FHE aligns with the logic of 'high barrier track + long-term demand,' but currently still needs to observe commercialization progress. Investors can accumulate in batches, laying out in the $0.06 to $0.1 range, with strict stop-loss (if it falls below $0.05), and pay attention to the mainnet upgrade and partner progress in the second half of 2025.