Analyzing SOL's strength from three perspectives: faith, asset expansion, and chip structure, and discussing the future trend of SOL.
1. Faith is built through decline, consensus is built through rise
Analysis: SOL dropped from $259.9 to $8 (a 97% drop), similar to the historical reshuffling of ETH (which dropped 94% in 2018) and BTC, eliminating speculators and stabilizing holders. The profit effect during the rise attracts external buying, amplifying the fundamentals and forming a consensus.
Supplement: SOL's 'faith' comes from surviving the bear market (resolving outages, FTX crisis) and the bull market cycle (BTC ETF inflows).
2. Creating assets is key, MEME leader BONK and DePIN narrative
Analysis: BONK locks in liquidity through airdrops and hype, attracting users, while DePIN expands the SOL ecosystem, positioning itself as a 'productivity public chain'. Public chains win through the profit effect and new narratives, rather than technological superiority.
Supplement: BONK boosted on-chain active addresses (from 200,000 to over 1 million), DePIN utilizes SOL's high throughput to attract Web2 users.
3. Concentrated chips and reduced selling pressure from lock-up
Analysis: FTX holds 55.8 million SOL (13%) locked due to bankruptcy, similar to ETH 2.0 lock-up, reducing circulating chips. A staking rate of 70% and DeFi lock-up further support the price. Concentrated chips are beneficial for rising, while dispersed chips require more gaming.
Supplement: FTX unlocking may bring pressure, similar to ETH Shanghai upgrade corrections. Institutional funds enhance chip stability.
When is SOL expected to rise?
Short-term (2025 Q2-Q3): Bull market continues, target $300-$350. Drivers: DePIN, BONK hype, institutional inflows.
Risks: Overheating, macro volatility.
Mid-term (2025 Q4-2026 Q1): FTX unlocking may trigger adjustments (10%-20%), target $400-$500. Drivers: New narratives (AI, GameFi).
Risks: Layer 1 competition.
Long-term (after 2026): If DePIN is realized and the ecosystem leads, it can break through $1,000; if ETH optimizes Gas or new chains rise, growth may be limited.
Summary and Recommendations
SOL's strength comes from the reshaping of faith, asset expansion, and chip lock-up.
Recommendations: Hold in the short term, focus on $300-$350.
Be cautious of FTX unlocking in the mid-term, add positions on dips.
Track DePIN and competitive dynamics in the long term. Monitor on-chain data (active addresses, staking rate) and FTX progress.
#SOL
1. Faith is built through decline, consensus is built through rise
Analysis: SOL dropped from $259.9 to $8 (a 97% drop), similar to the historical reshuffling of ETH (which dropped 94% in 2018) and BTC, eliminating speculators and stabilizing holders. The profit effect during the rise attracts external buying, amplifying the fundamentals and forming a consensus.
Supplement: SOL's 'faith' comes from surviving the bear market (resolving outages, FTX crisis) and the bull market cycle (BTC ETF inflows).
2. Creating assets is key, MEME leader BONK and DePIN narrative
Analysis: BONK locks in liquidity through airdrops and hype, attracting users, while DePIN expands the SOL ecosystem, positioning itself as a 'productivity public chain'. Public chains win through the profit effect and new narratives, rather than technological superiority.
Supplement: BONK boosted on-chain active addresses (from 200,000 to over 1 million), DePIN utilizes SOL's high throughput to attract Web2 users.
3. Concentrated chips and reduced selling pressure from lock-up
Analysis: FTX holds 55.8 million SOL (13%) locked due to bankruptcy, similar to ETH 2.0 lock-up, reducing circulating chips. A staking rate of 70% and DeFi lock-up further support the price. Concentrated chips are beneficial for rising, while dispersed chips require more gaming.
Supplement: FTX unlocking may bring pressure, similar to ETH Shanghai upgrade corrections. Institutional funds enhance chip stability.
When is SOL expected to rise?
Short-term (2025 Q2-Q3): Bull market continues, target $300-$350. Drivers: DePIN, BONK hype, institutional inflows.
Risks: Overheating, macro volatility.
Mid-term (2025 Q4-2026 Q1): FTX unlocking may trigger adjustments (10%-20%), target $400-$500. Drivers: New narratives (AI, GameFi).
Risks: Layer 1 competition.
Long-term (after 2026): If DePIN is realized and the ecosystem leads, it can break through $1,000; if ETH optimizes Gas or new chains rise, growth may be limited.
Summary and Recommendations
SOL's strength comes from the reshaping of faith, asset expansion, and chip lock-up.
Recommendations: Hold in the short term, focus on $300-$350.
Be cautious of FTX unlocking in the mid-term, add positions on dips.
Track DePIN and competitive dynamics in the long term. Monitor on-chain data (active addresses, staking rate) and FTX progress.
#SOL
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
SOL
147.9
-0.67%