Tesla just did something none of the other Magnificent 7 stocks have pulled off in 2025. It closed above its 200-day moving average, making it the only one of the group to recover that technical line.
However, the recovery came after the stock had already lost around 30% year-to-date, and no one buying this rally is looking at the company’s numbers. The data looks worse than ever.
According to Redburn Atlantic, Tesla investors should be heading for the exit. On Tuesday, the firm told clients to sell, warning of a rough year ahead full of falling sales and tighter cash flow.
Adrian Yanoshik, an analyst at Redburn, wrote in a note that “our challenging earnings outlook incorporates headwinds from electric vehicle (EV) pricing, Mexico-US and China-Europe tariffs.” He said the firm expects earnings and free cash flow to land 10% below Wall Street’s estimates.
Redburn expects more downside as EV risks pile up
Yanoshik didn’t stop there. He pointed to possible risks from Washington, saying:
“We note even further risks for downgrades associated with a possible rescinding of US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean vehicle credits.”
If those federal credits disappear, Tesla buyers could lose a key price break, and that could crush already shaky demand. Redburn is calling for a price target of $160, which means a 44% drop from Monday’s close of $285.88.
That puts a hard ceiling on the optimism that pushed the shares up 18% after terrible earnings. Investors are trading this stock like it’s a joke. It’s not moving on performance. It’s moving on, wishful thinking.
Yanoshik also said the new Model Y refresh, which started deliveries in March, won’t change much. “Although aimed at reinvigorating sales, we only consider a modest net volume uplift,” he said.
There’s also a cheaper model coming in June, but the company hasn’t shown it, named it, or said what it’ll do differently. The only thing known is that it’s coming. That’s not a plan. That’s a placeholder.
#TeslaRevolution #TeslaTriumph