Cardano (ADA) started the second quarter with a strong performance, breaking through the $0.60 resistance level, seemingly aiming to prove its value to the market. However, this rise did not continue, and ADA subsequently fell into a consolidation phase, showing no further signs of breakthrough, with its movement stagnating.
Charles's bold predictions stand in awkward contrast to reality.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson once boldly claimed that ADA would 'go to the moon', even setting a price target of $10, which sparked heated discussions in the crypto community. Nevertheless, the reality is far from satisfactory, as the ADA price still fails to break $1, remaining ten times away from that 'moon price'.
Once explosive, now dull; the remaining time in Q2 may struggle to bring surprises.
Looking back to early February, ADA briefly soared to $1.8 billion in trading volume, peaking at $0.80. However, trading volume has now shrunk to $640 million, and market enthusiasm has visibly cooled. Although trading volume has seen a slight rebound recently, it has only increased by 11%, making it difficult to trigger a new round of market activity.
The RSI also confirms this fatigue, having only touched the overbought zone once this year, and that was due to brief emotional speculation triggered by Trump-related topics. All of this suggests that ADA's rise is more like a flash in the pan, lacking sustained momentum.
If Cardano's market behavior remains unchanged and the technical trend continues to stabilize, it will be nearly impossible to break $1 in the short term. Unless significant positive stimuli occur, the remainder of Q2 may only maintain the current lackluster pace.
Charles's faith remains, but on-chain data tells a different story.
Although Hoskinson still firmly believes that fundamentals will eventually support ADA, the on-chain data presents a different picture. Network fees have plummeted by 52%, currently only at $8,100, indicating a significant decline in trading activity. Multiple key on-chain indicators have also continued to weaken, further eroding market confidence.
Overall, under the backdrop of both technical and fundamental cooling, returning to $1 is already challenging, and Charles's dream target of $10 remains far out of reach.
