#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币
Profit supply is approaching a critical threshold.
BTC profit supply reached 86.87%, nearing the 90% overheating warning line; historically, this phase is often accompanied by a brief euphoria followed by a correction. #BitcoinBTC#
Previously, a 75% supply level served as strong support; the current quote is $95,062.32, with a 24-hour increase of 0.25%, continuing the short-term upward trend.
Whale trades have significantly expanded.
Transfers above $10 million surged by 183.45%, with $1 million - $10 million increasing by 82.26%;
Transactions in the $100,000 - $1,000,000 and $10,000 - $100,000 ranges increased by 38.41% and 36.17% respectively, with institutional activity boosting prices.
Capital flow strengthens bullish expectations.
BTC net outflow of $167 million (outflow $603.07 million vs inflow $435.99 million), continuing the accumulation trend, alleviating selling pressure, and solidifying the $95,000 support level.
On-chain indicators show contradictory signals:
MVRV long-short differential decreased to 1.73%, short-term holders have limited profits, and selling risks have reduced.
The NVT ratio surged to 598.28, with the network value growth far exceeding transaction volume, posing a risk of valuation divergence.
Key risk areas in the derivatives market:
$90,000 - $93,000: A large number of high-leverage long positions, price declines may easily trigger a chain liquidation.
Above $95,000: Short liquidation pressure increases, particularly notable above $97,000.
This means that a price breakout will trigger a short squeeze, while the opposite may trigger a long squeeze.
In summary, Bitcoin's current upward trend benefits from institutional capital inflow and an optimized market supply-demand structure;
However, the divergence between network activity and valuation indicators, coupled with the fragility of the derivatives market, necessitates caution regarding the risk of sharp price fluctuations.
If BTC can effectively hold the $94,000 - $95,000 support range and avoid large-scale liquidation events, it may welcome an important window period to hit the $100,000 key psychological barrier.
‼️ Risk warning: Investing carries risks, and as an investor, you should understand all risks in advance and make careful investment decisions independently.
‼️ All information and content in the account are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact me.
