If the next trend market comes, what will be the driving force?
- Macroeconomic aspect: "Defeated by Trump, succeeded by Trump." The trade war is tightening, and the tax reduction bill is easing. Currently, Congress plans to accelerate legislation after reconvening on April 28, aiming to pass it before the recess in August; the deadline for budget reconciliation is September 30, 2025; due to the debt ceiling, it may be reached at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter, and the bill may pass in July.
- Micro technical analysis: Assuming the last large-scale adjustment (March - October 2024) was a horizontal adjustment, and similar adjustment methods are interleaved, this time it may be a vertical adjustment, deep enough but short in duration. 109588→74508 is the first part of the adjustment, and the rebound from 74508 to now is a response to it; after the rebound, it will fall again, with the strength of the decline depending on the strength of the rebound.
- Macroeconomics combined with microeconomics: The passage of the tax reduction bill and the implementation of deregulation could become an important policy driving force for the market. The originally expected autumn market may sprout and start in the summer instead.