#亚利桑那比特币储备 Macroeconomic Risk Mitigation, Market Sentiment Warming

With signs of easing in US-China trade tensions, market risk appetite has significantly rebounded. Recently, US President Trump has released positive signals, indicating a willingness to restart negotiations with China. This shift in attitude has alleviated investors' concerns about the escalation of the 'tariff war.' Although a complete repair of relations between the two countries will still take time, short-term policy adjustments have created a favorable environment for risk assets. Last week, Bitcoin surged from $85,000 to $95,000, while safe-haven assets such as gold experienced a pullback.

This week, market focus shifts to US economic data, including non-farm employment, GDP, and PCE inflation indicators. If the data is weak, it may strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, further benefiting risk assets. However, caution is warranted regarding the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on global liquidity.

II. Bitcoin Breaks $95,000, ETF Funds Become Key Support

Last week, Bitcoin strongly broke through $95,000, setting a six-week high, but then faced resistance and fell back to $94,861, with a 24-hour increase of 1.44%. This round of increase is closely related to the inflow of spot ETF funds: on April 22, a single day inflow reached $912 million, 500 times the average for 2025, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) contributing over $600 million.

Market Dynamics Analysis:

Institutional-Driven Buying: ETFs continue to absorb Bitcoin supply, forming strong support. Currently, the total holdings of 11 US Bitcoin ETFs exceed 580,000 coins, valued at over $54 billion, becoming the main 'marginal buyer.'

Liquidation Wave and Long-Short Battle: In the past 24 hours, over 110,000 people were liquidated, amounting to $275 million, with long positions accounting for 62%. Although the short funding rate remains negative, selling pressure at highs is quickly absorbed by buying, demonstrating market resilience.

Policy-Driven Catalysts: Arizona has passed a bill allowing 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, becoming the first state to adopt cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve. Several other states and the federal government are also following suit, promoting optimistic expectations for long-term demand.