On April 25, 2025, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges hit a 7-year low, at only 2.492 million BTC, while inflows into Bitcoin funds reached $3.2 billion. Is this a sign of the start of a new accumulation phase? Let's analyze in detail.
Significant Decrease in Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges: Lowest in 7 Years
According to data from CryptoQuant, the total supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased to 2.488 million BTC on Friday (April 25), the lowest level since October 2018. Although it slightly increased by 40,000 BTC over the weekend, reaching 2.492 million $BTC , this figure still reflects a strong trend of withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at $95,400, rising after the Trump administration expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs with China, easing global trade tensions.
Surge in Inflows to Bitcoin Funds: $3.2 Billion
Reports from CoinShares show that Bitcoin funds recorded inflows of $3.2 billion in the week ending April 28, reversing the previous consecutive outflow trend (last month recorded an outflow of $894 million). This coincides with data from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US, as funds like BlackRock's IBIT net purchased $3.062 billion last week. The combination of reduced supply on exchanges and increased fund inflows suggests a new accumulation phase, with strong participation from both institutions and individual investors.
Strong Participation from Individual Investors: Signals of Natural Demand
The 'whale' ratio on exchanges – measuring the ratio of the top 10 largest inflows compared to total inflows – has decreased from 0.512 (April 17) to 0.36 (April 27). This indicates that individual investors are playing a larger role in the current wave of trading, reflecting organic demand for Bitcoin. The participation of individual investors, along with large institutions like Cardone Capital (purchasing 350 BTC) and GameStop ($4.7 billion preparing to buy BTC), is creating strong momentum for the market.
Is Bitcoin Becoming 'Digital Gold'?
Some traders believe Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and has a closer correlation with gold, reinforcing the argument of 'safe-haven asset.' However, the correlation data between Bitcoin and gold fluctuated greatly in 2025: from 0.74 (January), down to -0.87 (early February), then up to 0.55 (currently). Nevertheless, Bitcoin's dominance index has increased from 54% (early December 2024) to 63.4%, indicating that investors are shifting from highly volatile altcoins to Bitcoin – a less volatile asset.
Bitcoin Price Volatility: More Stable but Still Risky
Bitcoin's volatility index in the past two years has fluctuated within a narrower range compared to before 2023, with fewer spikes. However, on April 7, 2025, the second-highest volatility index of the year was recorded (rising from 3.4 to 6.71) as Bitcoin dropped to a 5-month low of $74,773. Nevertheless, with the current price >$90,000 and reduced supply on exchanges, Bitcoin is showing signs of greater stability in the long term.
Impact on the Crypto Market
The current trend brings many positive signals:
Strong accumulation: Low supply on exchanges and increased fund inflows indicate that investors are accumulating Bitcoin, similar to the moves from MicroStrategy (531,644 BTC) and Twenty One (Bitcoin reserve of $3.9 billion).
Increased natural demand: The participation of individual investors helps increase liquidity and stabilize the market, supporting altcoins like XRP (upcoming 2X leveraged ETF) and Ethereum (gas limit about to increase).
Support for Bitcoin price: Reduced supply on exchanges, along with a weakening USD (USDX hitting a low of 97.9 on April 21, 2025, according to #FXCE ), creates conditions for Bitcoin to rise in the long term.
Conclusion: Will Bitcoin Continue to Rise?
The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased to a 7-year low (2.492 million BTC), along with inflows into funds reaching $3.2 billion, indicating a strong accumulation phase. The participation of individual and institutional investors, along with the increased dominance index (63.4%), is reinforcing Bitcoin's position as a safe-haven asset. Although the correlation with gold is not clear, Bitcoin still has long-term growth potential. Investors should closely monitor to seize opportunities.
Risk warning: Crypto investment carries high risks due to price volatility and legal uncertainties. Consider carefully before participating.