Fed rate cut in May? Don't dream about it! Consensus in the circle: impossible!

First, let's state the conclusion: Forget about May, the script has long been written - the Fed is definitely going to remain unchanged!

Traders are not taking May seriously at all; the latest CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in May is as high as 91%, and the probability of a rate cut is less than 10%.

Even the experienced traders on Polymarket are betting wildly on 'no rate cut', with the probability soaring to 90%.

This consensus is not a wild guess; it is backed by the Fed officials' 'hawkish performances' and the 'tariff black swan' causing disruptions.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market: BTC under short-term pressure, but don't panic!

Although the failure of rate cut expectations is a short-term negative for risk assets, experienced traders understand - the more dovish the Fed, the crazier BTC gets.

The market is already speculating on the rate cut expectations in June, with the drama of BTC sucking blood from altcoins and the SOL ecosystem dancing wildly being replayed.

Remember two key dates:

April 30: US GDP + PCE inflation: poor data = probability of June rate cut UP↑

May 7: FOMC meeting: as long as Powell hints 'possible rate cuts in the future', BTC will immediately perform like a jack-in-the-box.

Operational advice: Hold on to spot positions before May, avoid contracts during the interest rate decision, and go all in once the June script is finalized!

Remember, the Fed's words are deceiving, following expectations is the way to profit.

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