$BTC 【BTC Price Mechanism Analysis: The Dual Game of Liquidity and Consensus】

The price of Bitcoin is not solely determined by supply and demand, but is the result of the interplay between liquidity preference and consensus strength. During the halving cycle, the decreasing supply and the leverage behavior in the derivatives market create a price elasticity amplification effect — within half a year after the halving in 2020, the net inflow into Grayscale Trust reached 14 billion dollars, driving the price up by more than 5 times.

The current market is experiencing a dual differentiation between institutional capital allocation and retail behavior: on one hand, companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings to strengthen value anchoring; on the other hand, the volatility of whale holdings has risen to its highest point since 2022, indicating an increase in the proportion of short-term arbitrage capital. On-chain data shows that net inflows into exchanges and stablecoin reserves are growing simultaneously, suggesting that the market is in a phase of building a bottom.

From a long-term perspective, the value of BTC derives from the narrative of digital gold combined with the attributes of a decentralized payment network, but its price elasticity is still constrained by traditional financial cycles. The current price volatility has converged below the 50-day moving average, which may indicate that the main capital is starting to reallocate weighted assets.