How the average cost of bitcoin mining has changed, how US trade duties affect mining, and what the market's prospects are in the next few years
Mining bitcoin is getting more expensive. The largest Western mining companies, whose shares are traded on the stock exchange, spent an average of $82,162 to produce one bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is according to a new report from research company CoinShares. By comparison, just a quarter earlier, the average cash cost was $55,950. Thus, costs have increased by almost 47% in just three months.
The authors of the report separately distinguish between two measures of cost of sales. Operating cash cost (cash cost) takes into account only the direct costs of companies (electricity, equipment operation and administrative costs). It is this indicator that reflects the real financial burden on miners.
At the same time, total cost also includes accounting items, such as equipment depreciation and employee share payments. These costs don't require immediate cash payments, but they do affect companies' financial statements and bottom line. CoinShares notes that if non-cash expense items such as equipment depreciation and stock-based compensation are included, the full cost of mining one bitcoin rises to $137,018.
However, it is the operating expenses that reflect real cash flow that provide the most accurate picture of the state of the industry. CoinShares in its study analyzed the performance of the largest publicly traded mining companies such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, Iren, Cormint, Core Scientific and Cipher Mining. It was their financial data that formed the basis for calculating the average cost of bitcoin mining.
Impact of US duties
However, equipment amortization costs could increase significantly in the near future due to trade duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, CoinShares noted:
“Miners using older or less efficient equipment are most affected by these duties.”
On April 2, Trump announced duties for dozens of countries. On April 5, minimum duties of 10% for all partners began to take effect. Additional duties, set separately for each country, were planned from April 9. The increase in duties also affected the countries from which mining equipment comes to the U.S., including China, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
The imposition of the duties coincided with an all-time high in bitcoin's aggregate hash rate, reached on April 11 at 924 Eh/s (exahashes per second), according to the Blockchain.com service. As of April 26, the figure had plunged 12% to 815 Eh/s, leveling out the entire 2025 hashrate growth, which had been rising from around 790 Eh/s from January to a peak in April.
Bitcoin market forecasts
Despite all the macroeconomic conditions surrounding the imposition of duties in the US, CoinShares believes that the long-term outlook for the mining market will not be affected in any way.
“Our latest forecasts now indicate that the long-awaited 1,000 Eh/s threshold could be reached as early as July this year. At the same time, computing power is expected to grow to 1,280 Eh/s by the end of the year and reach 2,000 Eh/s by early 2027,” the analysts suggest.
In addition, experts point to the trend of diversifying the mining business into data center infrastructure that offers more predictable revenue streams. A possible weakening of the dollar is also cited as another important trend, which will lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin, which will also affect the revenues of mining companies in an upward direction.
“The imposition of duties is likely to spur inflation in both the US and its trading partners. This dynamic could force the adoption of more adaptive fiscal and monetary policies - measures that often lead to currency depreciation, ultimately increasing bitcoin's appeal as a state-independent, inflation-resistant asset,” CoinShares wrote.
CoinShares isn't the only one who sees dollar weakness and monetary policy in the U.S. as possible influential factors for bitcoin price growth. Analysts of the largest crypto exchange Binance also note the weak impact of the imposed duties in the U.S. compared to its monetary policy, which is the reason why the conjuncture on the world trade markets is formed.
Some experts believe that the deterioration of the situation in the mining market may affect only participants from the United States, which occupy about 30% of the mining market. However, the decline in the share of US miners in the global market may lead to a more global distribution of computing power, from which other regions will benefit.
