Ethereum (ETH) did not bring much fortune to investors in Q1/2025.
With a decrease of -45.41% this quarter, Ethereum has ended a two-year streak of stable price fluctuations. As a result, FOMO investors (fear of missing out) from the 'Trump pump' in Q4 of last year may still be facing losses.
However, if you are an investor who participated in the Q1 cycles of 2023 or 2024, you may have witnessed your investment grow significantly. Early buyers during those times may have seen their assets double in just three short months.
Specifically, if you bought 1 million ETH in Q1/2023 or 2024, you might have earned an additional 1 million ETH during this price surge.
But currently, you are facing a net loss of about $454,000.
Source: Coinglass
According to historical data, Q2 is usually a more prosperous season for Ethereum – except for the years 2024 and 2022, where 2022 was still haunted by the devastating collapse cycle after the FTX incident.
The performance of ETH in Q2/2025 has not yet reached alarming levels. In fact, at the time of writing, ETH's quarterly profit has only slightly decreased by -1.54%.
This modest decline suggests that despite a challenging Q1, the market may be gradually preparing for a recovery.
ETH in Q2 – Will patience be rewarded?
In 2018, 2019, and 2020, ETH turned Q2 into its own 'playground', with strong recoveries – particularly after tumultuous Q1s.
But 2024 tells a different story. A decrease of 5.74% in Q2 seems insignificant until a closer analysis. Just as Ethereum was first listed for spot ETFs on Wall Street in July – a historic milestone, everyone expected a 'rocket launch'. But instead, ETH continued to slide. Q3 also brought no glimmer of hope, as profits continued to plummet by an additional 24.19%.
According to the analysis, the ETH/BTC pair collapsed sharply at that moment. This collapse has yet to recover, pulling this ratio down to its lowest level in the past 5 years.
ETH/BTC | Source: TradingView
Furthermore, Ethereum's dominance level – which had been steadily fluctuating between 15% to 20% – has now dropped to 7.4%.
Unless ETH can regain market share from Bitcoin by breaking through the 'stubborn' resistance zones, a strong recovery in Q2 still seems quite distant.
However, some small profits may still appear, especially as capital is likely to return thanks to Trump's 90-day tariff suspension order.
Currently, double-digit profits still seem like a far-fetched expectation.
Whales are accumulating
However, not all of the ETH community is pessimistic. As the market fluctuates sideways and investor sentiment is hesitant, a whale just executed a $110 million move – quietly accumulating ETH and Bitcoin through two OTC trades with Wintermute.
This is the kind of action that experienced traders will immediately recognize: smart money is accumulating.
On-chain data shows a large transaction from an Ethereum whale: purchasing 30,000 ETH (worth about $54 million) through Wintermute's OTC platform.
The transactions were made through two USDC transfers, totaling over $110 million, sent to Wintermute's OTC wallet. Soon after, the whale's wallet received the entire asset amount.
Although the overall market remains cautious, this move indicates increasing confidence from high-net-worth investors. Such quiet accumulations, while often overlooked, are usually early signals before significant price movements.
Currently, the holdings of whales remain stable.
Whale holdings remain stable
Source: Santiment
Supporting this observation, the activity of Ethereum whales across the market has generally remained stable over the past week.
Data from Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding from 1,000 to 100,000 ETH has hardly changed, even as the price of ETH rose from the $1,500 range to about $1,700.
Source: Santiment
Meanwhile, the number of transactions from whales has surged since April 21, coinciding with the ETH breakout.
Stable support from whale holders, combined with an increase in large transactions recently, indicates growing confidence from institutions – rather than just speculation.
Price outlook for ETH
Ethereum's recent breakout above the $1,750 level seems to be holding steady, with ETH trading around $1,800 at the time of writing.
The RSI index on the daily chart remains neutral, around 55, signaling that there is still room for further increases without facing immediate overbought pressure.
Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator continues to signal a bullish crossover, with the MACD line firmly above the signal line – indicating that the upward momentum is being reinforced.
With stable accumulation from whales as a foundation, the price of ETH could target the $1,850–$1,900 range in the near future, as long as the overall market conditions remain stable.
If ETH clearly surpasses the $1,900 threshold, the door to the $2,000 mark may soon open in the following sessions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.