Super Data Week is Coming, Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE Will Follow
Looking ahead to next week, although the Federal Reserve has entered its "quiet period" and the domestic market is about to enter the May Day holiday, there are still many significant events on the agenda. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week:
Monday 22:30, U.S. April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index
Tuesday 22:00, U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings, April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Wednesday 09:30, China April Official Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday 09:45, China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone Q1 GDP Year-on-Year Preliminary
Wednesday 20:15, U.S. April ADP Employment Change
Wednesday 20:30, U.S. Q1 Labor Cost Index Quarter-on-Quarter, Q1 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Preliminary, Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Quarter-on-Quarter Preliminary, Q1 Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Preliminary
Wednesday 22:00, U.S. March PCE Price Data, March Personal Consumption Month-on-Month, March Existing Home Sales Index Month-on-Month
Thursday 19:30, U.S. April Challenger Job Cuts
Thursday 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
Friday 20:30, U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment Change, April Unemployment Rate
The ADP employment report, known as the "little non-farm," will also be released next Wednesday, along with the latest PCE inflation and consumption data. However, the real focus will be on the non-farm employment report scheduled for release next Friday. Speculation about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is currently very intense. Non-farm employment growth is expected to slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. Average wages in April may increase by 0.3% month-on-month. For the U.S. dollar, a series of concerning data will almost certainly be negative, but for U.S. stocks, if hopes for an interest rate cut rise and market sentiment is not overshadowed by recession concerns, the market may rise.