1. The timeline of the explosion incident

Time and place: On April 26, 2025, a massive explosion occurred in the southeastern Iranian port city of Abbas Port, destroying a warehouse containing hazardous materials.

Casualties: At least 28 people died, over 1,000 were injured, and three Chinese workers suffered minor injuries and were sent to the hospital.

Cause speculation: It may have been caused by improperly stored missile fuel (a chemical substance similar to fertilizer) igniting, but Iranian officials deny the existence of an arms depot.

Who is shifting blame: Some in Iran claim it was Israel's doing, intending to sabotage U.S.-Iran negotiations.

2. The covert struggle between major powers

U.S. and Israel in a spat:

  • U.S. attitude: Although the Trump administration does not currently plan to attack Iran, it has deployed the most advanced stealth bombers to military bases in the Indian Ocean, effectively flexing its muscles at Iran's doorstep.

  • Israel is anxious: Continuously leaking to U.S. officials and media, demanding harsher actions against Iran, even stating, 'As long as the U.S. takes action, we will be at the forefront.'

  • U.S. ups the ante: The U.S. has sent the most advanced fighter jets, reconnaissance drones, and air defense systems to the Middle East, with aircraft carrier battle groups also stationed in the Persian Gulf.

Russia strongly supports Iran:

  • In January this year, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year 'ironclad alliance' agreement, which officially took effect in April.

  • Russia has agreed to supply Iran with 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually and is financing the construction of Iran's first nuclear power plant, with both countries supporting each other internationally.


3. Troubles caused by the explosion

Port paralysis: This port handles 90% of Iran's container transport. After the explosion, the port came to a halt, and goods can only reroute through smaller ports, extending transport time by several days and doubling shipping costs.

Oil price fluctuations: Although Iran's refineries were not bombed, concerns about war have led to a rise in international oil prices.

Shipping rerouting: Many cargo ships have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz (the key passage in the Persian Gulf), putting enormous pressure on global logistics.



4. Where are the peace talks stuck?

Core contradiction:

  • The U.S. demands that Iran significantly reduce its ability to refine nuclear materials and lift all sanctions.

  • Iran insists on retaining some nuclear technology while requiring the U.S. to lift sanctions first.


Russia's stance: Publicly supports direct talks between both sides and warns that anyone who resorts to military action is violating international law.


Possible showdown: If negotiations fail, Trump threatens to restart 'maximum pressure'—that is, harsher sanctions plus military threats.



Summary: The Middle East powder keg is smoldering again

This explosion has made the differences between the U.S. and Israel public: the U.S. wants to apply pressure but does not want to go to war, while Israel is eager to take immediate action. Russia seizes the opportunity to strengthen ties with Iran, putting the U.S. in a more passive position.

Short-term impact: Rising oil prices, increased logistics costs, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Long-term risk: If the nuclear talks completely collapse, the U.S. may take military action against Iran alongside its allies, significantly increasing the risk of war.