Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization share is 64%, not far from the previous bull market's peak of 71%, but I think this time it shouldn't rise that high. In November-December 2023, and similarly in the same time frame of 2024, Bitcoin's share experienced a slight decline, during which altcoins will start to rise. Therefore, when Bitcoin's share begins to turn downwards, it is an important signal for the altcoins to start moving.
Right now, we need to focus on the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin, as Ethereum is the largest public blockchain in the cryptocurrency space. Their strength can indicate whether market funds are beginning to flow out of Bitcoin. In the past three months, the exchange rates of mainstream coins against Bitcoin have been falling, which is why altcoins have remained inactive. This has also been the reason for the lack of performance and participation from altcoins in the recent period.
However, there has been a turning point recently; some mainstream exchange rates have already risen above the 20-day moving average. If they can maintain this position, it will confirm that funds are starting to flow into mainstream coins. Nevertheless, we still need to observe, as the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin has not been able to regain the 20-day moving average since it fell below it on January 8 of this year.
In simple terms:
If Bitcoin's market capitalization share begins to decline, altcoins will have a significant opportunity. The key is to see if the five major mainstream coins can collectively break through the 20-day moving average. Currently, three have already broken through, and if the remaining two, Ethereum and Ripple, can also break through, altcoins will at least be able to catch a breath.
