1. First, you must understand that contracts are just a tool.
Before newcomers enter the contract market, many voices they hear are that contracts are a dangerous beast or a way for nouveau riche to emerge.
In fact, it is just a tool; it mainly depends on how you use it. Generally, large funds are often used for asset hedging, known as hedging, but most people use it to get rich (I thought so too). This is a zero-sum market; if someone wins, someone loses. Coupled with exchange fees and market manipulation by big players, retail investors are bound to face dire consequences. Saying contracts are a meat grinder is not an exaggeration. If you want to survive here, you must learn the survival rules within; survival of the fittest.
2. Always set a stop-loss when opening a position; stop-loss levels can range from 1 to 100 points, depending on your position size.
Newcomers often like not to set stop-losses, but once loss aversion is magnified, it leads to irrationally holding onto positions, infinitely amplifying risks. Once the capital breaks, you can only watch helplessly as your account is liquidated. Often, this happens without you realizing it. Initially, you just wanted to earn a fraction, but ended up losing all your principal.
Remember one thing: stop-loss is the cost of trading.
3. There may be a method to earn forever in contracts, but it is certainly not something that new traders can grasp.
Many people trade contracts to make a lot of money with little capital, but there are only two paths to making big money.
First, position wins; go heavy on positions. Second, amplitude wins; the market needs to have a sufficiently large movement amplitude, like the big drops of 312 or 519, or big rises from 10,000 to 60,000. To hold such amplitude, no analysis is useful; there is only one strategy: don’t take profits.
The most sophisticated profit-taking method is not taking profits, but not taking profits is extremely counterintuitive; 100 times or even 90 times you will either lose or break even.
If your position is small, you can't make big money even with a large move. If your position is large but the move is small, it won’t matter, and it’s also more likely to lead to liquidation. All the people who make big money are experts at balancing the two.
4. There is no constant form in warfare, nor in water.
The market will always move in the direction of least resistance; betting on trends and guessing sizes is no different. No amount of technical analysis will help. Knowing how to read K-lines and some basics is enough.
Technical analysis is not difficult; remembering this sentence is enough: If the trend is upward, it will continue to rise; if the trend is downward, it will continue to fall. If it rises a lot but retraces little, it will rise even higher. If it falls a lot but only rebounds slightly, it will continue to fall. The larger the cycle, the more effective it is.
Understanding these means understanding the core laws of technical analysis.
Rolling positions in a trend is fine, and trading small positions in a sideways market can work, but if you develop this trading habit, you will never become rich in your lifetime.
Short-term trading can make money quickly but can also lead to quick losses. Over time, your earnings may not even cover the transaction fees. If you think you are the chosen one, then go ahead and try; losing money will only come from winning.
5. The timing of entry is very important; many losing trades stem from the fear of missing out.
When you have no position, wait for a rebound to short during a decline; remember not to chase. The same goes for an uptrend; enter on a pullback, do not chase.
This may cause you to miss some strong trend movements, but most of the time it’s safer. However, many people can only see profits and not risks, and eventually blame others for their missed opportunities.
6. Do not be afraid.
Many people in the futures market are afraid after losing and no longer dare to open positions; they become hesitant and indecisive in trading. Losses lead to excessive purposefulness, a strong desire for results, always thinking about profits, and trying to avoid losses, wanting to be right every time; this mindset is unlikely to lead to profits.
Ancient wisdom says not to be happy with gains or sad with losses; translated into trading means: do not rejoice in profits or mourn losses.
When you are sufficiently calm inside, you will achieve something.
Trade with the enthusiasm and passion you had on your first day in futures. Don’t fear the wolves in front or the tigers behind; if you're wrong, set a stop-loss; if you're right, hold on. Don’t rush to exit before the trend reverses; otherwise, you'll miss out.
7. Maintain enthusiasm.
No matter what you have experienced, maintain enthusiasm and passion. Hold onto a beautiful yearning for life, be as determined as you were on your first job, and love boldly like you did on your first date.
Many things in life are like this; whether in career or relationships, there may not always be results. In fact, the probability is that there will be no result. But if you don't put in the effort, there will definitely be no result.
Do good deeds without asking about the future.
8. Many people think about opening positions every moment, even wanting to be fully invested, and find it harder to be flat than to lose money.
In fact, trends often have a short duration. Controlling drawdowns is the most important. How to control drawdowns? Being flat is the best method.
Don’t always think you need to take profits from every move. Capturing one or two opportunities in a year is enough. Missing out is normal; there's no need to regret. As long as you’re still here and live longer, there will be many opportunities. Time is the only chip for retail investors. Keep a calm mind, wait patiently, and making money is just a side benefit; enjoying life is the essence.
9. The mindset and insights of trading
In trading, what matters more is the mindset; knowledge is the technique, while the mindset is the inner strength.
Being able to see clearly is not enough; the important thing is knowing what to do when you see clearly or incorrectly, how to maintain the discipline of holding positions, how to have a good mindset, how to not fear missing out, how to not fear drawdowns… It’s always a mindset of wanting to win but fearing to lose, and in this market, it’s unlikely to make money.
Some things newcomers may not understand right away, but as long as you survive in this market longer, you will discover that they are all truths.
10. About trend judgment
In the long run, there is an upward trend; in the medium term, there are cyclical fluctuations; in the short term, it can only rely on guessing.
Long-term is suitable for accumulation, mid-term is suitable for large swings, while short-term is too low probability for professionals to make big money quickly. We should focus on high-probability actions, like expecting a rebound after a sharp drop or expecting a pullback after a significant rise.
Find a suitable time frame for yourself; the length of time should be adjusted based on the market. Once you guess the trend, you must have the courage to enter, hold on, and avoid rushing to exit before the trend ends. If you guess wrong, set a stop-loss promptly and change direction. Don’t hesitate; be decisive.
Only by doing high-probability things can you likely make big money; the probability of getting rich through high leverage is too low. Even if you gain through luck, you will eventually lose it through skill. The success rate of rolling positions with low leverage is far greater than with high leverage.
11. Timing of entry
You need to have enough patience; time is your friend. The profits from rolling positions are huge. As long as you can roll successfully a few times, you can earn at least hundreds of thousands to millions. Therefore, you cannot roll easily; you must find highly certain opportunities. A highly certain opportunity refers to a sideways trend after a sharp drop, testing the bottom multiple times, then breaking upward. At this point, the probability of following the trend is very high. Don’t try to catch the bottom; find the point of trend reversal and get on board from the start.
For example, if the weekly moving average is above, it indicates a bullish trend. If it retraces a few times without breaking down, it is a good entry point. You can start with 10x leverage at 41,000, with a stop-loss at 40,000. Do not take profits; if it rises to 42,000 without a pullback, it indicates a trend has formed. Increase your position to 30%, with a stop-loss at 41,000. Continue to add 30% for every 1,000 increase, realizing floating profits until fully invested, while also moving the stop-loss closer to the entry price to prevent black swans. When your full position reaches 100% floating profit, you can choose to close at a relatively high point and re-enter in two stages, and so on, to realize rolling positions.
12. About controlling drawdowns
It’s very important. If you grasp the trend using the above methods, you can double or even triple your position. How to control drawdowns? You can refer to closing positions if the daily line retraces and breaks down. In case of a large drawdown, go flat and wait for opportunities, or you can short with a small position, focusing on one direction until the trend reverses.